Kedron QLD Property Investment

## 1. Investment Verdict BUY — Kedron scores 71.0/100 on the investment scorecard. The single most important number is 16.7% one-year price growth against a 3.5% five-year CAGR. That tells you this market has shifted from steady accumulation to rapid acceleration. The cooling market cycle tempers the verdict, but the fundamentals still support a buy for medium-term holders.

## 2. Market Overview Kedron's median house price sits at $1,690,605, with units at $752,400. The one-year growth of 16.7% far outpaces the five-year compound annual growth rate of 3.5% per year, indicating a recent surge. The three-year growth forecast of 13.5% suggests further upside but at a slower pace. Days on market data is unavailable, but the market cycle is labelled "cooling" — meaning the rapid price rises may be easing. For buyers, this creates a window before the next leg up. For sellers, the peak momentum has likely passed.

## 3. Rental Market The vacancy rate sits at 1.2% — well below the 3% benchmark for a balanced market. Rental demand is rated "very high." Median weekly rent is $750/week, producing a gross rental yield of 2.3%. That yield is low by national standards. The owner-occupier rate of 56% means just under half the suburb is rental stock, which supports consistent tenant demand. For investors, the yield is the weak point — you're buying for capital growth, not cash flow.

## 4. Short-Term Rental Opportunity STR data is incomplete — no median nightly rate or occupancy figures are available. Without these numbers, you cannot reliably estimate annual STR revenue. Given the low gross yield of 2.3% on long-term rentals, STR would need to generate significantly higher returns to justify the additional management burden. Until you can model STR returns with actual data, long-term rental remains the safer play here.

## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers Two major infrastructure projects support Kedron's demand profile. Brisbane 2032 Olympic Games Infrastructure is announced but not yet under construction — this will drive long-term amenity improvements. Cross River Rail is under construction and will improve connectivity across Brisbane. Eagle Junction station is 2.5km away, providing rail access. The unemployment rate is 3.8%, below the national average, indicating a strong local economy. The supply pipeline is "low" — price growth is outpacing new supply, which supports existing property values.

## 6. Bull Case If current conditions hold, Kedron delivers a 13.5% price gain over three years based on the forecast. On a $1,690,605 median house, that's approximately $228,232 in capital growth over three years. The 1.2% vacancy rate and "very high" rental demand mean you'll likely never struggle to find tenants. The 2032 Olympics infrastructure will continue to lift the suburb's profile and amenity over the next decade. Low supply pipeline means limited competition from new developments.

## 7. Risks Yield risk: Gross yield of 2.3% means negative gearing is almost certain at current interest rates. If rates stay high, you're subsidising the mortgage each month.

Market cycle risk: The market is "cooling" after 16.7% one-year growth. A correction of 5–10% would wipe out short-term gains.

No significant risk factors identified in the scorecard — but the low supply pipeline could become a risk if demand softens and you need to sell into a thin market.

Single-employer dependency: Not flagged as a risk here, but 3.8% unemployment means the local economy is healthy. Watch for any major employer downsizing in Brisbane's north.

## 8. The Play Entry range: $1.5M–$1.8M for houses. Units at $750k offer lower entry but similar yield constraints.

Minimum yield to target: 2.3% is the current yield. Do not accept anything below 2.0% — that's the floor for negative gearing to remain manageable.

Watch signals: Vacancy rate trending above 2.0%, days on market increasing, or any slowdown in the 13.5% three-year forecast. If the cooling cycle turns into a downturn, wait for stabilisation.

Recommended strategy: Buy a house for capital growth, not yield. Hold for 5–7 years to ride out the cooling phase and capture the 2032 Olympics uplift. Negative gear the property and target the capital gain as your primary return. Avoid units — the yield is similar but capital growth potential is lower.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.