Lower Tully QLD Property Investment

CAUTION — 4.2% gross yield on a $311,000 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) median.

Lower Tully has compounded at 3.2%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $311,000 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 45 days (roughly balanced conditions).

• Median house: $311,000 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) | Units: $0
• Gross yield: 4.2% | Net yield: 2.7%
• 5yr price CAGR: 3.2%/yr | 3yr forecast: 2.9%/yr
• Population: 88 | Owner-occupier rate: 66% | Affluence: Below Average

• Supply pipeline: Moderate — Development activity consistent with long-term averages

• Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
• Median weekly rent: $250/wk | Days on market: 45 (stable)
• Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.

• Median nightly rate: $453/night | Occupancy: 44%
• Estimated annual STR gross: ~$72,761/yr
• vs long-term rent: $13,000/yr (+460% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)

• No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
• Transport: Tully station 9.9km away

If Lower Tully maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $357,650 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Lower Tully pull back 10-15% from $311,000, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

• Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
• - Flood risk: MODERATE (qld_elevation_proxy) — part of the suburb sits near waterways or in a mapped flood-prone area

• Bedourie (QLD): $278,000 median, 2.6% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
• Monto (QLD): $329,660 median, 5.6% yield, 14.4% 1yr growth
• Mount Isa (QLD): $312,155 median, 4.8% yield, -14.1% 1yr growth

Lower Tully carries elevated risk that outweighs potential returns at current levels. A cooling market combined with moderate vacancy risk warrants caution. Avoid new acquisitions unless significant discount to median pricing is achievable. Re-evaluate if vacancy falls below 2.5% or annual price growth exceeds 3%.

• Entry range: $279,900 – $342,100
• Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
• Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.