Mansfield QLD Property Investment

THE MARKET

Mansfield has compounded at 6.8%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $1,007,562 in 2021 is worth $1,400,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 21 days (sellers have the leverage). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,945,290 by 2031.

- **Median house:** $1,400,000 | **Units:** $259,438 - **Gross yield:** 2.9% | **Net yield:** 1.4% - **5yr price CAGR:** 6.8%/yr | **3yr forecast:** 7.7%/yr - **Population:** 11,613 | **Owner-occupier rate:** 26% | **Affluence:** High

- **Supply pipeline:** Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline

RENTAL SNAPSHOT

- **Vacancy:** 2.2% (improving) | **Rental demand:** High - **Median weekly rent:** $770/wk | **Days on market:** 21 (improving) - Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.

SHORT-TERM RENTAL

- **Median nightly rate:** $185/night | **Occupancy:** 70% - **Estimated annual STR gross:** ~$47,268/yr - **vs long-term rent:** $40,040/yr (+18% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)

INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS

- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record. - **Transport:** Well-connected inner-city location

BULL CASE

If Mansfield maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.5%, median prices could reach $1,610,000 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

BEAR CASE

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Mansfield pull back 10-15% from $1,400,000, with vacancy rising to 4.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

KEY RISKS

- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb

COMPARABLE MARKETS

- **Albany Creek** (QLD): $1,200,000 median, 3.2% yield, 12.5% 1yr growth - **Albion** (QLD): $1,100,000 median, 3.1% yield, -13.0% 1yr growth - **Alderley** (QLD): $1,700,000 median, 2.0% yield, 21.8% 1yr growth

THE PLAY

Mansfield presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 2.9% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current growth phase of the market cycle.

- Entry range: $1,260,000 – $1,540,000 - Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5% - Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market holding under 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.