South Townsville QLD Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $668,730 - Median unit price: $512,054 - 1‑year price growth: 10.7 % (strong recent upside) - 5‑year CAGR: 1.6 % per year (moderate long‑term trend) - 3‑year growth forecast: 13.5 % (expected acceleration)

*Signal:* Recent price momentum (10.7 % in the past year) favours sellers, while the modest 5‑year CAGR signals that buyers should be cautious about overpaying. The forecasted 13.5 % growth over the next three years suggests a potential swing back toward seller‑friendly conditions if the outlook materialises.

*Days on market:* Data not provided – cannot comment on speed of sales.

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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $600 / wk - Gross rental yield: 4.7 % - Vacancy rate: Data not provided - Demand rating: Data not provided

*Interpretation:* A 4.7 % yield places South Townsville in the mid‑range for regional Queensland, offering a reasonable cash‑flow base. Without vacancy data we cannot quantify risk, but the yield suggests the market is not severely oversupplied.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity - STR nightly rate: Data not provided - STR occupancy: Data not provided - Estimated annual STR revenue: Data not provided

*Conclusion:* Because no short‑term rental metrics are supplied, we cannot calculate an STR revenue estimate or compare LTR versus STR profitability. Investors should treat LTR as the default strategy until STR data becomes available.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects / transport / employment base: Data not provided

*Implication:* The 3‑year growth forecast of 13.5 % hints at underlying demand drivers (e.g., infrastructure or employment), but without specific project details we cannot pinpoint the catalysts.

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## 6. Bull Case Assume the 3‑year forecast of 13.5 % total growth materialises:

• House price projection: $668,730 × 1.135 ≈ $758,000 after three years.
• Unit price projection: $512,054 × 1.135 ≈ $581,000 after three years.

If rental yields hold at 4.7 % and rents rise in line with price growth, investors could see both capital appreciation and modest rent growth, pushing total returns above the current yield.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Quantified Concern | |------|--------------------| | Vacancy risk | No vacancy data – a rise in vacancies would erode the 4.7 % yield. | | Growth sustainability | 1‑yr growth of 10.7 % contrasts with a 5‑yr CAGR of only 1.6 %; a re‑version to the long‑term trend could stall price gains. | | Supply pipeline | No supply data – new builds could increase competition and push yields lower. | | Interest‑rate sensitivity | With a 4.7 % yield, any increase in borrowing costs could compress net cash flow, especially if rent growth stalls. | | Employer concentration | No employment data – reliance on a single large employer would heighten risk if that employer contracts. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry range: - Houses around $668,730 (median) - Units around $512,054 (median)

• Minimum yield target: ≥ 4.7 % to match the current market average and provide a buffer against potential vacancy or rate hikes.

• Watch signals:

• Recommended strategy: Maintain a Hold position. Acquire if the purchase price falls at least 5 % below the median (≈ $635k for houses, ≈ $486k for units) to boost yield above 4.7 %. Monitor the above watch signals; a confirmed infrastructure boost or a drop in vacancy could tip the verdict toward Buy, while rising vacancies or a slowdown in price growth would support a shift to Avoid.