Upper Kedron QLD Property Investment

THE MARKET

Upper Kedron has compounded at 6.6%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $944,403 in 2021 is worth $1,300,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 20 days (sellers have the leverage). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,789,490 by 2031.

- **Median house:** $1,300,000 | **Units:** $452,417 - **Gross yield:** 3.4% | **Net yield:** 1.9% - **5yr price CAGR:** 6.6%/yr | **3yr forecast:** 7.5%/yr - **Population:** 40,573 | **Owner-occupier rate:** 34% | **Affluence:** Very High

- **Supply pipeline:** Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline

RENTAL SNAPSHOT

- **Vacancy:** 2.7% (stable) | **Rental demand:** Moderate - **Median weekly rent:** $850/wk | **Days on market:** 20 (improving) - Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.

SHORT-TERM RENTAL

- **Median nightly rate:** $185/night | **Occupancy:** 70% - **Estimated annual STR gross:** ~$47,268/yr - **vs long-term rent:** $44,200/yr (comparable — LTR offers simpler management)

INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS

- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record. - **Transport:** Standard suburban transport access

BULL CASE

If Upper Kedron maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.9%, median prices could reach $1,495,000 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

BEAR CASE

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Upper Kedron pull back 10-15% from $1,300,000, with vacancy rising to 4.9% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

KEY RISKS

- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb

COMPARABLE MARKETS

- **Albany Creek** (QLD): $1,200,000 median, 3.2% yield, 12.5% 1yr growth - **Albion** (QLD): $1,100,000 median, 3.1% yield, -13.0% 1yr growth - **Alexandra Headland** (QLD): $1,400,000 median, 2.8% yield, -17.9% 1yr growth

THE PLAY

Upper Kedron presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and moderate rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 3.4% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current growth phase of the market cycle.

- Entry range: $1,170,000 – $1,430,000 - Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5% - Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market holding under 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.