Nairne SA Property Investment
Adelaide Hills · 5252 · Score: 62/100 · Hold
Nairne Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Estimated revenue assumes year-round availability. Non-hosted short-stays are night-capped in some councils (e.g. 60 nights across most of Byron Shire, 180 in Ballina, Muswellbrook and parts of Greater Sydney) and levied in Victoria — the legal cap can cut achievable income well below this figure. Run STR Check for the rules on a specific address.
Nairne SA Investment Brief
HOLD — 3.7% gross yield on a $839,725 median.
THE MARKET
Nairne has compounded at 3.0%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $724,354 in 2021 is worth $839,725 today. Properties are sitting on market for 60 days (buyers have negotiating room). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $973,471 by 2031.
- Median house: $839,725 | Units: $635,691
- Gross yield: 3.7% | Net yield: 2.2%
- 5yr price CAGR: 3.0%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 5,327 | Owner-occupier rate: 80% | Affluence: Above Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 0.8% (improving) | Rental demand: Very High
- Median weekly rent: $600/wk | Days on market: 60 (worsening)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $521/night | Occupancy: 42%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$79,851/yr
- vs long-term rent: $31,200/yr (+156% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Mount Barker station 5.6km away
BULL CASE
If Nairne maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 0.8%, median prices could reach $965,684 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Nairne pull back 10-15% from $839,725, with vacancy rising to 1.4% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Bushfire risk: HIGH (planning_overlay) — confirm BAL rating and any bushfire overlay obligations for the property
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Christie Downs (SA): $787,500 median, 3.8% yield, 12.5% 1yr growth
- Elizabeth Downs (SA): $670,500 median, 3.9% yield, 11.9% 1yr growth
- Elizabeth North (SA): $671,000 median, 3.8% yield, 16.1% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Nairne offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a cooling phase with low vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.2%.
- Entry range: $755,752 – $923,698
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 3.0% + 10yr CAGR 3.5%
- +Very tight rental market (vacancy 0.8%) — upward price pressure
- −High supply pipeline (852 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-06
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
134
2020
169
2021
214
2022
160
2023
175
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 5252
Decile 7 of 10 — Average
Population
6,783
Education (IEO)
6/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
8/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Nairne SA data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $600/wk median rent for Nairne. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.