Victor Harbor SA Property Investment

THE MARKET

Victor Harbor has compounded at 9.0%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $469,900 in 2021 is worth $723,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 42 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,112,425 by 2031.

- **Median house:** $723,000 | **Units:** $130,405 - **Gross yield:** 4.0% | **Net yield:** 2.5% - **5yr price CAGR:** 9.0%/yr | **3yr forecast:** 10.1%/yr - **Population:** 10,818 | **Owner-occupier rate:** 37% | **Affluence:** Below Average

- **Supply pipeline:** Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline

RENTAL SNAPSHOT

- **Vacancy:** 1.2% (improving) | **Rental demand:** Very High - **Median weekly rent:** $550/wk | **Days on market:** 42 (stable) - Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.

SHORT-TERM RENTAL

- **Median nightly rate:** $155/night | **Occupancy:** 64% - **Estimated annual STR gross:** ~$36,208/yr - **vs long-term rent:** $28,600/yr (+27% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)

INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS

- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record. - **Transport:** Well-connected inner-city location

BULL CASE

If Victor Harbor maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 0.8%, median prices could reach $831,450 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

BEAR CASE

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Victor Harbor pull back 10-15% from $723,000, with vacancy rising to 2.2% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

KEY RISKS

- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb

COMPARABLE MARKETS

- **Albert Park** (SA): $880,000 median, 3.7% yield, 13.5% 1yr growth - **Aldinga Beach** (SA): $790,000 median, 4.0% yield, 8.2% 1yr growth - **Andrews Farm** (SA): $660,000 median, 4.5% yield, 14.5% 1yr growth

THE PLAY

Victor Harbor offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a growth phase with low vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.5%.

- Entry range: $650,700 – $795,300 - Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5% - Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.