Bridgewater TAS Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $541,883 - Median unit price: $438,900 - 1‑year price growth: +16.0% - 5‑year CAGR: +3.7% per annum - 3‑year growth forecast: +13.5%

*Signal:* Price growth of 16% over the last 12 months and a forecast of 13.5% over the next three years indicate a seller‑friendly market in the short term. However, the 5‑year CAGR of 3.7% shows the suburb is still on a moderate long‑term upward trajectory, giving buyers some negotiating power if they can secure a price below the median.

*Days on market:* Data not supplied – without this metric we cannot quantify how quickly listings are converting, but the strong recent price appreciation suggests turnover is reasonably brisk.

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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $483 - Gross rental yield: 4.6% - Vacancy rate: Data not supplied - Demand rating: Data not supplied

*Interpretation:* A 4.6% yield sits above the national average for many capital‑city suburbs, signalling decent cash‑flow potential. The absence of vacancy and demand data means investors should verify local occupancy levels before committing, but the yield alone supports a hold stance.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental (STR) Opportunity - Nightly STR rate: Data not supplied - Occupancy (average % of nights booked): Data not supplied - Estimated annual STR revenue: Data not supplied

*Conclusion:* With no STR metrics available, we cannot model an STR case. Given the solid long‑term yield (4.6%) and the lack of STR data, long‑term rental (LTR) remains the safer, more predictable option for now.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects, transport upgrades, major employers: Data not supplied

*What’s driving demand:* The strong 1‑year price growth (16%) and the 13.5% three‑year forecast imply underlying demand, likely from regional population growth and affordable‑price positioning relative to Hobart’s inner suburbs. Without specific project or employment data, investors should monitor council releases and infrastructure announcements for any catalysts.

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## 6. Bull Case Assume the 3‑year forecast of +13.5% materialises and the rental yield stays at 4.6%:

*Upside:* Capital appreciation of roughly $73,000 on a median house plus a modest increase in rental income, delivering a total three‑year return north of 15% (price + cash flow), well above the 5‑year CAGR of 3.7%.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Detail (with numbers) | |------|-----------------------| | Vacancy risk | Vacancy rate not disclosed; a rise above 5% could erode the 4.6% yield. | | Interest‑rate sensitivity | With a 4.6% gross yield, any increase in borrowing costs that pushes net yield below 3% would tighten cash flow. | | Supply pipeline | No data on upcoming developments; a surge in new housing could pressure both price growth and rents. | | Single‑employer dependency | No employment data provided; if the suburb relies heavily on one large employer, any downsizing could affect demand. |

*Note:* Proximity to Hobart’s CBD (≈5 km) is a positive attribute and therefore not listed as a risk.

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## 8. The Play - Entry price range: Target purchases at or below the median house price of $541,883 (or median unit price of $438,900) to secure a margin of safety. | - Minimum yield target: Aim for ≥ 4.6% gross (or higher after accounting for management fees and borrowing costs). | - Watch signals: * Any published vacancy data moving above 5% * Council approvals for new housing estates in Bridgewater * Changes in the 1‑year price growth rate (e.g., falling below 10%) * Interest‑rate moves that push net cash flow below 3% | - Recommended strategy: Acquire a median‑priced house or unit, hold for 3–5 years to capture the forecasted 13.5% capital gain, and collect steady rental income at the 4.6% yield. Re‑assess quarterly for vacancy trends and new supply announcements; consider refinancing if rates fall to improve net yield.