Geilston Bay TAS Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: approximately $798,308 (sole source – OnTheHouse, not peer‑validated). - Growth trend / days on market: *Data not supplied.* - Signal: With a median price in the high $700k range and a favourable scorecard, the market currently leans toward buyer opportunity, but the lack of growth and DOM data means investors should verify recent sales velocity before committing.

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## 3. Rental Market - Vacancy rate: *Data not supplied.* - Weekly rent: *Data not supplied.* - Gross yield: *Data not supplied.* - Demand rating: *Data not supplied.*

*Implication:* Without rental metrics we cannot calculate yield or assess tenant demand. Investors should obtain current vacancy and rent figures before finalising a rental strategy.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity - STR nightly rate: *Data not supplied.* - Occupancy: *Data not supplied.* - Estimated annual revenue: *Data not supplied.*

*Implication:* In the absence of STR data, we cannot compare long‑term rental (LTR) versus short‑term rental (STR). A prudent approach is to start with LTR until reliable STR metrics become available.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects / transport / employment base: *Data not supplied.*

*Implication:* No specific infrastructure or employment drivers are identified in the supplied data. Investors should monitor local council releases and Tasmanian state plans for any upcoming developments that could lift demand.

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## 6. Bull Case Assuming the market validates the current median price and the scorecard remains strong:

*These figures are illustrative only; they rely on external data not provided.*

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Evidence / Numbers | Impact | |------|--------------------|--------| | Median price uncertainty | Sole‑source median of $798,308 (no peer validation) | May be overstated or understated; price could deviate materially from this figure. | | Vacancy risk | Vacancy rate not supplied | If vacancy spikes, cash‑flow could turn negative. | | Rental‑income risk | Weekly rent not supplied | Without rent data, yield calculations are speculative. | | Supply pipeline | No data on new builds or approvals | A sudden influx of new housing could suppress prices and rents. | | Interest‑rate sensitivity | General market condition | Higher rates could reduce buyer affordability and increase holding costs. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry range: Target purchases around the sole‑source median of $798,308, allowing a ±5 % band to accommodate price uncertainty (≈ $758k – $838k). - Minimum yield to target: Aim for a gross yield of ≥ 4 % once reliable rent data becomes available. - Watch signals: 1. Peer‑validated median price from additional data providers. 2. Updated vacancy and weekly rent figures from local rental surveys. 3. Announcements of infrastructure or employment projects in the Hobart‑area corridor. - Recommended strategy: Acquire a property within the entry range, hold for long‑term capital growth while securing a tenant at a rent that delivers at least a 4 % gross yield. Re‑evaluate quarterly as rental and price data mature; consider switching to STR only if credible nightly‑rate and occupancy data emerge that push the gross yield above the LTR benchmark.