Havenview TAS Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $550,382 - Median unit price: $401,612 - 1‑yr price growth: 12.3% - 5‑yr CAGR: 3.4% per year - 3‑yr growth forecast: 13.5%

*Days on market* – not supplied, so we cannot gauge how quickly listings are selling.

Signal: Rapid 12.3% annual growth and a 13.5% forecast over the next three years suggest sellers have pricing power. Buyers should expect to pay a premium but can anticipate capital appreciation if they can secure a property now.

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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $280 - Gross rental yield: 2.6%

*Vacancy rate* and *demand rating* – not supplied.

Interpretation: A 2.6% gross yield is low by Australian standards, indicating that rental income alone will not drive strong returns. Investors must rely on capital growth to achieve overall profitability.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity No data were provided for STR nightly rates, occupancy, or estimated annual revenue.

Conclusion: With no STR metrics, long‑term rental (LTR) remains the default strategy until further market intelligence emerges.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers No specific projects, transport upgrades, or employment‑base figures were supplied.

Implication: In the absence of disclosed infrastructure or job‑creation drivers, the current growth appears to stem from broader regional trends rather than localized catalysts.

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## 6. Bull Case If the 3‑yr forecast of 13.5% growth materialises, the median house price could climb to roughly $625,000 ( $550,382 × 1.135 ).

• Capital gain: ≈ $74,600 per median house.
• Yield uplift: Even a modest rise in rent to $300 per week would lift the gross yield to about 2.8%, still modest but improving the cash‑flow profile.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Quantified Concern | |------|--------------------| | Vacancy risk | Vacancy rate not disclosed; a rise could further erode the already low 2.6% yield. | | Single‑employer dependency | No employment data supplied; reliance on a dominant employer would amplify local economic shocks. | | Supply pipeline | No data on upcoming developments; a surge in new dwellings could depress prices and yields. | | Rate sensitivity | With a 2.6% gross yield, any increase in borrowing costs directly squeezes net returns. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry range: Target properties around the median house price of $550,382 (± 5% to capture slight variations). - Minimum yield to target: Aim for ≥ 2.6% gross; ideally push for 3%+ by negotiating higher rents or selecting properties with lower purchase prices. - Watch signals: 1. Publication of days‑on‑market data – a drop would confirm seller momentum. 2. Any announced infrastructure or major employer projects. 3. Changes in vacancy levels or rent growth in the region. 4. Reserve‑bank rate moves that affect borrowing costs. - Recommended strategy: Acquire at the median price, hold for 3–5 years to capture forecasted capital growth, and focus on long‑term rental. Re‑evaluate if STR data become available or if infrastructure announcements materially shift demand.