Havenview TAS Property Investment

## 1. Investment Verdict Buy with caution, justified by the Investment Scorecard rating of 47.0/100. The single most important number that justifies this verdict is the 12.3% 1-year price growth, indicating a recent surge in property values.

## 2. Market Overview The median house price in Havenview, TAS is $542,117, while the median unit price is $437,422. The market has experienced a 12.3% growth in the past year, with a 5-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.4%. The 3-year growth forecast is 13.5%, suggesting a potential for continued growth. However, the market cycle is currently cooling, which may signal a slowdown in price growth. The owner-occupier rate is 63%, indicating a relatively stable community. With days on market data not available, it's difficult to determine the current balance between buyers and sellers, but the moderate rental demand and stable vacancy trend suggest a relatively balanced market.

## 3. Rental Market The vacancy rate in Havenview is 2.8%, indicating a moderate level of rental demand. The median weekly rent is $280, resulting in a gross rental yield of 2.7%. This yield is lower than some comparable suburbs, such as Kings Meadows (4.9%) and Triabunna (4.3%). The rental market is characterized as having moderate demand, which may impact the ability to attract and retain tenants. Investors should consider the relatively low yield and moderate demand when evaluating rental investments in Havenview.

## 4. Short-Term Rental Opportunity The median nightly rate for short-term rentals in Havenview is $121. However, occupancy rate data is not available, making it difficult to estimate the potential revenue from short-term rentals. Without this data, it's challenging to determine whether long-term rentals (LTR) or short-term rentals (STR) are more viable in this market. Investors should exercise caution and consider the potential risks and rewards of each option before making a decision.

## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers There are no major projects on file for Havenview, which may limit potential growth drivers. The nearest transport option is the Burnie station, 3.7km away, which may impact the attractiveness of the suburb for commuters. The lack of major projects and limited transport options may contribute to the cautionary Investment Scorecard rating. The employment base and industry diversity are not explicitly stated, but the 6.6% unemployment rate is higher than some other areas, which may impact the local economy and property market.

## 6. Bull Case If conditions hold or improve, the upside scenario for Havenview could be significant. With a 3-year growth forecast of 13.5%, investors could potentially see substantial capital gains. The low supply pipeline, with price growth outpacing new supply, may contribute to continued price growth. If the local economy and employment base improve, this could lead to increased demand for housing and rentals, driving up prices and yields. In this scenario, investors who buy in at the current median price of $542,117 could potentially see their investment grow to over $620,000 in the next three years, representing a significant return on investment.

## 7. Risks There are several specific risks associated with investing in Havenview. The distance from the CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential, as stated in the Investment Scorecard. The supply pipeline is low, which may lead to increased competition for existing properties and potentially drive up prices. The unemployment rate of 6.6% is higher than some other areas, which may impact the local economy and property market. Investors should also consider the potential risks associated with a cooling market cycle and the impact of interest rate changes on the property market.

## 8. The Play For investors considering Havenview, the entry range should be carefully evaluated. With a median house price of $542,117, investors should target a minimum yield of 3.0% to ensure a reasonable return on investment. Watch signals include changes in the local economy, employment base, and transport options, which could impact demand and prices. The recommended strategy is to buy with caution, focusing on properties with strong potential for capital growth and rental yield. Investors should also consider diversifying their portfolio to mitigate risks and ensure a balanced investment strategy.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.