Prospect Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Prospect TAS Investment Analysis
HOLD
— 4.5% gross yield on a $607,000 median.
THE MARKET
Prospect has compounded at 1.0%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $577,540 in 2021 is worth $607,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 21 days (sellers have the leverage). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $637,963 by 2031.
- **Median house:** $607,000 | **Units:** $109,157 - **Gross yield:** 4.5% | **Net yield:** 3.0% - **5yr price CAGR:** 1.0%/yr | **3yr forecast:** 1.1%/yr - **Population:** 30,198 | **Owner-occupier rate:** 39% | **Affluence:** Above Average
- **Supply pipeline:** Moderate — Development activity consistent with long-term averages
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- **Vacancy:** 1.7% (stable) | **Rental demand:** High - **Median weekly rent:** $523/wk | **Days on market:** 21 (improving) - Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- **Median nightly rate:** $175/night | **Occupancy:** 65% - **Estimated annual STR gross:** ~$41,519/yr - **vs long-term rent:** $27,196/yr (+53% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record. - **Transport:** Well-connected inner-city location
BULL CASE
If Prospect maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.2%, median prices could reach $698,050 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Prospect pull back 10-15% from $607,000, with vacancy rising to 3.1% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- **Austin Ferry** (TAS): $638,011 median, 4.3% yield, 8.7% 1yr growth - **Bridgewater** (TAS): $448,000 median, 5.4% yield, 6.5% 1yr growth - **Brighton** (TAS): $608,000 median, 4.6% yield, 5.7% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Prospect offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a growth phase with low vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 5.0%.
- Entry range: $546,300 – $667,700 - Minimum gross yield to target: 4.8% - Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.