Richmond Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Richmond TAS Investment Analysis
HOLD
— $995,000 median with 18.6%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Richmond has compounded at 18.6%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $424,033 in 2021 is worth $995,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 31 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $2,334,783 by 2031.
- **Median house:** $995,000 | **Units:** $402,313 - **Gross yield:** 3.4% | **Net yield:** 1.9% - **5yr price CAGR:** 18.6%/yr | **3yr forecast:** 20.9%/yr - **Population:** 26,945 | **Owner-occupier rate:** 36% | **Affluence:** High
- **Supply pipeline:** Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- **Vacancy:** 1.5% (improving) | **Rental demand:** High - **Median weekly rent:** $650/wk | **Days on market:** 31 (stable) - Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- **Median nightly rate:** $175/night | **Occupancy:** 65% - **Estimated annual STR gross:** ~$41,519/yr - **vs long-term rent:** $33,800/yr (+23% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record. - **Transport:** Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Richmond maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.0%, median prices could reach $1,144,250 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Richmond pull back 10-15% from $995,000, with vacancy rising to 2.7% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- **Bellerive** (TAS): $900,000 median, 3.5% yield, 8.8% 1yr growth - **Bicheno** (TAS): $810,000 median, 2.5% yield, 17.0% 1yr growth - **Blackmans Bay** (TAS): $807,000 median, 3.9% yield, -7.8% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Richmond offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a growth phase with low vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $895,500 – $1,094,500 - Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5% - Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.