Spreyton TAS Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $703,009 - Median unit price: $465,309 - 1‑yr price growth: ‑5.9% (price decline) - 5‑yr CAGR: 3.5% / yr (steady long‑term growth) - 3‑yr growth forecast: 13.5% (projected upside) - Days on market: *Data not supplied*

Signal: The ‑5.9% dip makes the market buyer‑friendly in the short term, while the 3.5% historic CAGR and 13.5% forward forecast keep the suburb attractive for long‑term investors. Sellers face a tougher environment now; buyers can negotiate on price but should verify that rental income can cover financing costs.

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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $580 /wk - Gross rental yield: 4.3% - Vacancy rate: *Data not supplied* - Demand rating: *Data not supplied*

Implication: A 4.3% yield sits above the national residential average, indicating decent cash‑flow potential. Without vacancy data we cannot quantify risk, but the yield suggests the rental market can support an investor’s cash‑flow target if vacancy remains low.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity - STR nightly rate: *Data not supplied* - STR occupancy: *Data not supplied* - Estimated annual STR revenue: *Data not supplied*

Conclusion: With no STR metrics available, we cannot model short‑term returns. Until reliable STR data emerges, long‑term rental (LTR) remains the safer choice.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects, transport upgrades, employment base: *Data not supplied*

Observation: In the absence of specific infrastructure or employment information, we cannot attribute demand to particular drivers. Investors should monitor local council releases for any upcoming developments that could lift demand.

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## 6. Bull Case Assume the 13.5% 3‑year growth forecast materialises and rental yields stay at 4.3%:

A capital gain of roughly $95,000 on a median house, combined with sustained yield, would lift total return well above the current 4.3% cash‑flow figure.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Quantified element | Impact | |------|--------------------|--------| | Recent price decline | ‑5.9% over 12 months | May depress equity and increase loan‑to‑value ratios. | | Vacancy risk | No vacancy data | Unknown; a rise above 5% could erode the 4.3% yield. | | Single‑employer dependency | No employment data | Cannot assess concentration risk; a dominant local employer could amplify downturns. | | Supply pipeline | No data on new dwellings | Unidentified future supply could pressure rents and yields. | | Rate sensitivity | General market condition | Higher interest rates would increase financing costs and could reduce buyer appetite, extending days on market. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry price range: $465,309 (median unit) – $703,009 (median house) - Minimum yield target: ≥ 4.3% (to match current gross yield) - Watch signals: 1. Publication of days‑on‑market figures – a rise suggests weakening demand. 2. Vacancy statistics – any increase above 5% flags cash‑flow pressure. 3. Interest‑rate movements – higher rates could suppress price recovery. 4. Announcement of infrastructure or major employer projects – could lift both capital and rental demand.

Recommended strategy: Acquire at the lower end of the price band (unit level) if the purchase price delivers ≥ 4.3% yield after financing costs. Hold for 3‑5 years to capture the forecasted 13.5% capital growth while collecting stable rental income. Re‑assess annually against vacancy and interest‑rate trends; consider a switch to short‑term rental only if reliable STR data becomes available and occupancy exceeds 70%.