Bairnsdale Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Bairnsdale VIC Investment Analysis
BUY
— 5.4% gross yield on a $450,000 median.
THE MARKET
Bairnsdale has compounded at 4.1%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $368,094 in 2021 is worth $450,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 64 days (buyers have negotiating room). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $550,131 by 2031.
- **Median house:** $450,000 | **Units:** $177,558 - **Gross yield:** 5.4% | **Net yield:** 3.9% - **5yr price CAGR:** 4.1%/yr | **3yr forecast:** 4.6%/yr - **Population:** 6,543 | **Owner-occupier rate:** 32% | **Affluence:** Below Average
- **Supply pipeline:** Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- **Vacancy:** 2.0% (improving) | **Rental demand:** High - **Median weekly rent:** $470/wk | **Days on market:** 64 (worsening) - Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- **Median nightly rate:** $175/night | **Occupancy:** 66% - **Estimated annual STR gross:** ~$42,158/yr - **vs long-term rent:** $24,440/yr (+72% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record. - **Transport:** Well-connected inner-city location
BULL CASE
If Bairnsdale maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.4%, median prices could reach $517,500 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Bairnsdale pull back 10-15% from $450,000, with vacancy rising to 3.6% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- **Albury** (VIC): $417,893 median, 4.7% yield, 1.7% 1yr growth - **Alexandra** (VIC): $471,000 median, 0.0% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth - **Ararat** (VIC): $390,000 median, 5.3% yield, 5.4% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Bairnsdale presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 5.4% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current growth phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $405,000 – $495,000 - Minimum gross yield to target: 5.7% - Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.