Balwyn Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Balwyn VIC Investment Analysis
HOLD
— 1.7% gross yield on a $2,900,000 median.
THE MARKET
Median house price in Balwyn sits at $2,900,000 with 44 days on market and a 1.5% vacancy rate. This is a tight rental market right now.
- **Median house:** $2,900,000 | **Units:** $543,897 - **Gross yield:** 1.7% | **Net yield:** 0.2% - **5yr price CAGR:** -0.8%/yr | **3yr forecast:** -0.9%/yr - **Population:** 27,952 | **Owner-occupier rate:** 37% | **Affluence:** Very High
- **Supply pipeline:** Moderate — Development activity consistent with long-term averages
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- **Vacancy:** 1.5% (worsening) | **Rental demand:** High - **Median weekly rent:** $950/wk | **Days on market:** 44 (stable) - Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- **Median nightly rate:** $175/night | **Occupancy:** 66% - **Estimated annual STR gross:** ~$42,158/yr - **vs long-term rent:** $49,400/yr (comparable — LTR offers simpler management)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record. - **Transport:** Well-connected inner-city location
BULL CASE
If Balwyn maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.0%, median prices could reach $3,335,000 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Balwyn pull back 10-15% from $2,900,000, with vacancy rising to 2.7% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Negative price growth suggests a softening market - Premium price point limits buyer pool and increases interest rate sensitivity
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- **Albert Park** (VIC): $2,400,000 median, 2.1% yield, 5.4% 1yr growth - **Alphington** (VIC): $2,100,000 median, 2.1% yield, 0.5% 1yr growth - **Armadale** (VIC): $2,300,000 median, 1.9% yield, -5.6% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Balwyn offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a correction phase with low vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $2,610,000 – $3,190,000 - Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5% - Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.