Box Hill VIC Property Investment
Whitehorse · 3128 · Score: 68/100 · Buy
Box Hill Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Estimated revenue assumes year-round availability. Non-hosted short-stays are night-capped in some councils (e.g. 60 nights across most of Byron Shire, 180 in Ballina, Muswellbrook and parts of Greater Sydney) and levied in Victoria — the legal cap can cut achievable income well below this figure. Run STR Check for the rules on a specific address.
Box Hill VIC Investment Brief
BUY — 2.1% gross yield on a $1,660,000 (approximate — based on limited recent sales) median.
THE MARKET
Box Hill has compounded at 4.1%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $1,660,000 (approximate — based on limited recent sales) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 118 days (buyers have negotiating room).
- Median house: $1,660,000 (approximate — based on limited recent sales) | Units: $590,000
- Gross yield: 2.1% | Net yield: 0.7%
- 5yr price CAGR: 4.1%/yr | 3yr forecast: 3.7%/yr
- Population: 14,353 | Owner-occupier rate: 48% | Affluence: High
- Supply pipeline: Low — Building approvals easing (1700/yr in 2020 → 797/yr in 2025) — less new competing supply entering the market
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.2% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $685/wk | Days on market: 118 (worsening)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $441/night | Occupancy: 48%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$77,330/yr
- vs long-term rent: $35,620/yr (+117% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Suburban Rail Loop East (Melbourne) (Under Construction)
- North East Link (Melbourne) (Under Construction)
- Angliss Hospital Expansion (Under Delivery)
- West Gate Tunnel (Melbourne) (Under Construction)
- Transport: Stop 58: Box Hill Central station 0.2km away
BULL CASE
If Box Hill maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.5%, median prices could reach $1,909,000 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Box Hill pull back 10-15% from $1,660,000, with vacancy rising to 4.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Collingwood (VIC): $1,300,000 median, 3.2% yield, 4.1% 1yr growth
- Carlton (VIC): $1,200,000 median, 3.6% yield, 8.7% 1yr growth
- Altona East (VIC): $1,250,000 median, 1.7% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Box Hill presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 2.1% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current cooling phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $1,494,000 – $1,826,000
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 4.1% + 10yr CAGR 4.8%
- +Strong population growth (2.9%/yr) driving demand
- +Low rental vacancy (2.2%) — constrained supply
- −Slow market (118 days avg) — buyer hesitancy
- −High supply pipeline (6960 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-07
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
1,700
2020
1,786
2021
1,442
2022
1,235
2023
797
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 3128
Decile 5 of 10 — Average
Population
22,841
Education (IEO)
9/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
2/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Box Hill VIC data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $685/wk median rent for Box Hill. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
Analyse a Property in Box Hill
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.