Deer Park Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Deer Park VIC Investment Analysis
HOLD
— 3.8% gross yield on a $694,000 median.
THE MARKET
Deer Park has compounded at 4.2%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $564,964 in 2021 is worth $694,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 17 days (sellers have the leverage). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $852,507 by 2031.
- **Median house:** $694,000 | **Units:** $281,667 - **Gross yield:** 3.8% | **Net yield:** 2.2% - **5yr price CAGR:** 4.2%/yr | **3yr forecast:** 4.7%/yr - **Population:** 54,089 | **Owner-occupier rate:** 38% | **Affluence:** Above Average
- **Supply pipeline:** Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- **Vacancy:** 3.0% (stable) | **Rental demand:** Moderate - **Median weekly rent:** $500/wk | **Days on market:** 17 (improving) - Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- **Median nightly rate:** $175/night | **Occupancy:** 66% - **Estimated annual STR gross:** ~$42,158/yr - **vs long-term rent:** $26,000/yr (+62% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record. - **Transport:** Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Deer Park maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $798,100 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Deer Park pull back 10-15% from $694,000, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- **Eumemmerring** (VIC): $645,000 median, 0.0% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth - **Eureka** (VIC): $525,000 median, 0.0% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth - **Euroa** (VIC): $507,500 median, 0.0% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Deer Park offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a growth phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.2%.
- Entry range: $624,600 – $763,400 - Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5% - Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.