Eildon VIC Property Investment

## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $440,000 - 1‑year price growth: ‑3.3 % (price fell last year) - 5‑year CAGR: 6.4 % per annum (steady growth over the medium term) - 3‑year forecast growth: 13.5 % (strong upside expected) - Days on market: N/A

The recent price decline gives buyers a modest entry discount, while the 5‑year CAGR and 3‑year forecast signal that sellers can still expect price appreciation in the near future.

## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $268 - Gross rental yield: 3.2 % - Vacancy rate: N/A - Demand rating: N/A

A 3.2 % yield places the suburb in the moderate‑return bracket. Without vacancy data we cannot quantify rental risk, but the rent level suggests stable demand for long‑term tenants.

## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity - STR nightly rate: N/A - STR occupancy: N/A - Estimated annual STR revenue: N/A

Because STR metrics are unavailable, we cannot calculate an annualised return. With the current data, long‑term rental (LTR) remains the clearer income stream.

## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects: N/A - Transport links: N/A - Employment base: N/A

The 13.5 % three‑year growth forecast implies underlying drivers—likely tourism, lifestyle appeal or regional development—but specific projects or transport upgrades are not listed.

## 6. Bull Case If the 13.5 % forecast materialises and the 3.2 % yield holds, a $440,000 property could rise to roughly $500,000 in three years (13.5 % increase). Adding the rental cash‑flow of $268 × 52 = $13,936 per year would lift total investor return to around 15 % over the period, assuming no major cost spikes.

## 7. Risks - Vacancy risk – no vacancy figure; a rise above 5 % would erode the 3.2 % yield. - Employer concentration – no data; reliance on a single large employer would heighten downside if that business contracts. - Supply pipeline – no data; a surge in new housing could push rents down and dilute price growth. - Rate sensitivity – a 1 % rise in cash‑rate would increase mortgage costs, squeezing the modest 3.2 % yield.

## 8. The Play - Entry range: $410,000 – $470,000 (around the current median, allowing a 5 % discount for negotiation). - Minimum yield to target: 3.5 % (to provide a buffer above the current 3.2 % yield). - Watch signals: release of vacancy statistics, announcement of any infrastructure or tourism projects, and movements in the RBA cash‑rate. - Recommended strategy: acquire at the lower end of the range, hold for 3–5 years to capture the forecasted price rise, and monitor rental market data. If STR data emerges and shows a nightly rate that delivers >5 % gross yield, consider converting to a short‑term rental model.