Essendon North Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Essendon North VIC Investment Analysis
BUY
— $1,425,223 median with 11.0%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Essendon North has compounded at 11.0%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $845,800 in 2021 is worth $1,425,223 today. Properties are sitting on market for 23 days (sellers have the leverage). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $2,401,584 by 2031.
- **Median house:** $1,425,223 | **Units:** $823,580 - **Gross yield:** 2.0% | **Net yield:** 0.5% - **5yr price CAGR:** 11.0%/yr | **3yr forecast:** 12.3%/yr - **Population:** 9,078 | **Owner-occupier rate:** 28% | **Affluence:** Very High
- **Supply pipeline:** Moderate — Strong population growth likely attracting new development approvals
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- **Vacancy:** 1.8% (improving) | **Rental demand:** High - **Median weekly rent:** $540/wk | **Days on market:** 23 (improving) - Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- **Median nightly rate:** $175/night | **Occupancy:** 66% - **Estimated annual STR gross:** ~$42,158/yr - **vs long-term rent:** $28,080/yr (+50% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record. - **Transport:** Well-connected inner-city location
BULL CASE
If Essendon North maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.3%, median prices could reach $1,639,006 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Essendon North pull back 10-15% from $1,425,223, with vacancy rising to 3.2% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- **Ferny Creek** (VIC): $1,037,300 median, 0.0% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth - **Flemington** (VIC): $1,014,500 median, 0.0% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth - **Forest Hill** (VIC): $1,325,000 median, 0.0% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Essendon North presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 2.0% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current growth phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $1,282,701 – $1,567,745 - Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5% - Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.