Ferntree Gully VIC Property Investment
Casey · 3156 · Score: 64/100 · Hold
Ferntree Gully Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Estimated revenue assumes year-round availability. Non-hosted short-stays are night-capped in some councils (e.g. 60 nights across most of Byron Shire, 180 in Ballina, Muswellbrook and parts of Greater Sydney) and levied in Victoria — the legal cap can cut achievable income well below this figure. Run STR Check for the rules on a specific address.
Ferntree Gully VIC Investment Brief
HOLD — 3.8% gross yield on a $888,400 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) median.
THE MARKET
Ferntree Gully has compounded at 6.2%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $888,400 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 35 days (roughly balanced conditions).
- Median house: $888,400 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) | Units: $690,736
- Gross yield: 3.8% | Net yield: 2.2%
- 5yr price CAGR: 6.2%/yr | 3yr forecast: 4.4%/yr
- Population: 27,398 | Owner-occupier rate: 80% | Affluence: High
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Development activity consistent with long-term averages
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.2% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $640/wk | Days on market: 35 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $447/night | Occupancy: 48%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$78,391/yr
- vs long-term rent: $33,280/yr (+136% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Angliss Hospital Expansion (Under Delivery)
- Suburban Rail Loop East (Melbourne) (Under Construction)
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Ferntree Gully maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.5%, median prices could reach $1,021,660 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Ferntree Gully pull back 10-15% from $888,400, with vacancy rising to 4.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Weir Views (VIC): $622,651 median, 3.8% yield, 8.7% 1yr growth
- Lovely Banks (VIC): $699,877 median, 4.5% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
- Dandenong North (VIC): $783,645 median, 3.7% yield, 6.6% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Ferntree Gully offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a stable phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.2%.
- Entry range: $799,560 – $977,240
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 6.2% + 10yr CAGR 5.8%
- +Low rental vacancy (2.2%) — constrained supply
- −High supply pipeline (21547 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-06
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
3,683
2020
4,692
2021
4,788
2022
4,712
2023
3,672
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 3156
Decile 8 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
38,484
Education (IEO)
7/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
8/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Ferntree Gully VIC data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $640/wk median rent for Ferntree Gully. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.