Kealba VIC Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $835,000 - Median unit price: $565,255 - 1‑year price growth: 9.1 % - 5‑year CAGR: 4.5 % per year - 3‑year growth forecast: 13.5 %

Days on market is not available, so we cannot gauge current buyer‑seller speed. The double‑digit recent growth (9.1 % YoY) and a forward‑looking 13.5 % forecast signal a market that still favours sellers, but the lack of DOM data suggests the pace may be moderating.

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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $505 / wk - Gross rental yield: 3.1 % - Vacancy rate: N/A - Demand rating: N/A

A 3.1 % yield places Kealba in the low‑to‑mid range for Melbourne’s outer suburbs. Without vacancy data we cannot quantify risk, but the yield indicates that rental income will cover a reasonable portion of financing costs, making the suburb acceptable for income‑focused investors.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity - STR nightly rate: N/A - Occupancy rate: N/A - Estimated annual STR revenue: N/A

Because no short‑term rental metrics are supplied, we cannot compare LTR versus STR. Investors should treat long‑term rental as the default strategy until STR data becomes available.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers No specific projects, transport upgrades, or employment‑base figures are provided. The strong price‑growth history (9.1 % YoY, 13.5 % forecast) implies underlying demand, likely driven by affordable relative pricing compared with inner‑city suburbs and proximity to employment hubs, but we cannot quantify any particular driver.

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## 6. Bull Case If the 3‑year forecast of 13.5 % capital growth materialises and the 3.1 % rental yield remains stable:

• Capital gain: $835,000 × 13.5 % ≈ $112,725 increase in house value over three years.
• Rental income: $505 × 52 = $26,260 per year; over three years ≈ $78,780 gross rent.

Combined, an investor could see a total three‑year return of roughly 23 % (≈ $191,500 on a $835,000 house), assuming no major cost escalations.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Detail (numbers where available) | |------|-----------------------------------| | Vacancy risk | Vacancy rate not disclosed; a low yield (3.1 %) leaves little buffer if vacancies rise. | | Single‑employer dependency | Employment data not supplied; concentration risk cannot be assessed. | | Supply pipeline | No data on new dwellings; a surge in supply could pressure rents and prices. | | Rate sensitivity | With a 3.1 % yield, a 1 % rise in borrowing cost could erode net cash flow. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry range: Target purchases around the median – $565,255 for units or $835,000 for houses. | - Minimum yield to target: Aim for ≥ 3.1 % gross yield to match the suburb’s average. | - Watch signals: <br>• Emerging data on days on market. <br>• Changes in vacancy rates. <br>• Updates to the 3‑year growth forecast. | - Recommended strategy: Acquire at or below median price, hold for 3–5 years to capture projected capital growth while collecting modest rental income. Re‑evaluate if vacancy data shows a sharp rise or if supply pipelines are announced.