Mildura VIC Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: approximately $600,000 - Median unit price: approximately $451,000 - 1‑yr price growth: 18.0 % (strong upside) - 5‑yr CAGR: 4.4 % / yr (steady long‑term growth) - 3‑yr forecast growth: 13.5 % (projected continuation) - Days on market: *Data not provided*

Signal: The double‑digit recent growth and a solid 3‑year forecast give sellers leverage, but the still‑reasonable median price and healthy yield keep buyers interested, especially those looking for capital‑gain upside rather than pure cash‑flow.

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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $500 / wk - Gross rental yield: 4.3 % - Vacancy rate: *Data not provided* - Demand rating: *Data not provided*

Implication: A 4.3 % yield is modest but acceptable for a regional centre. Without vacancy data we cannot quantify risk, but the yield suggests investors can expect a decent, if not spectacular, cash‑flow stream.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental (STR) Opportunity - Nightly STR rate: *Data not provided* - Occupancy (STR): *Data not provided* - Estimated annual STR revenue: *Data not provided*

Conclusion: With no STR metrics available, we cannot model the short‑term rental upside. Given the lack of data, long‑term rental (LTR) remains the clearer path for most investors at this time.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects / transport upgrades: *Data not provided* - Employment base: *Data not provided*

Drivers/Limiting factors: The strong 1‑yr growth (18 %) and 3‑year forecast (13.5 %) imply underlying demand, likely tied to regional agriculture, tourism, and service‑sector employment, but without specific project or employment data we cannot pinpoint exact catalysts.

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## 6. Bull Case If the 3‑year forecast of 13.5 % growth materialises and the 1‑yr momentum continues:

• Median house price could rise from ≈ $600,000 to around $680,000 in three years (≈ $80,000 capital gain).
• Yield would stay near 4.3 % if rents keep pace, preserving cash‑flow while delivering capital appreciation.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Quantified Concern | Impact | |------|-------------------|--------| | Vacancy risk | *Vacancy rate not supplied* – cannot quantify, but a low yield (4.3 %) leaves little margin if vacancies rise. | Potential cash‑flow squeeze. | | Single‑employer dependency | *Employment data not supplied* – if the local economy relies heavily on one sector, a downturn could depress both rents and prices. | Capital‑gain and yield pressure. | | Supply pipeline | *No data on new dwellings* – a surge in construction could dilute price growth and increase vacancy. | Downward pressure on prices and yields. | | Rate sensitivity | Current yield 4.3 % offers limited buffer against rising interest rates. | Higher borrowing costs could reduce investor appetite and price momentum. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry price range: around $600,000 for a house (or $451,000 for a unit). - Minimum yield target: 4.3 % (current gross yield). - Watch signals: 1. Publication of vacancy statistics for Mildura. 2. Announcement of any major infrastructure or employment projects. 3. Changes in the 3‑year growth forecast or actual price movements. 4. Movements in the cash‑rate that could affect borrowing costs.

Recommended strategy: Acquire at the median price, target properties that can deliver at least the current 4.3 % gross yield, and hold for 2‑3 years to capture the projected 13.5 % capital growth. Monitor vacancy and infrastructure news closely; if vacancy climbs or supply spikes, consider tightening entry criteria or shifting focus to higher‑yield units.