Morwell Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Morwell VIC Investment Analysis
BUY
— vacancy at 1.7% and $420/wk rent puts this in the top tier of VIC yield suburbs.
THE MARKET
Morwell has compounded at 8.3%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $248,347 in 2021 is worth $370,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 56 days (buyers have negotiating room). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $551,244 by 2031.
- **Median house:** $370,000 | **Units:** $255,380 - **Gross yield:** 5.9% | **Net yield:** 4.4% - **5yr price CAGR:** 8.3%/yr | **3yr forecast:** 9.4%/yr - **Population:** 15,027 | **Owner-occupier rate:** 31% | **Affluence:** Low
- **Supply pipeline:** Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- **Vacancy:** 1.7% (improving) | **Rental demand:** High - **Median weekly rent:** $420/wk | **Days on market:** 56 (worsening) - Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- **Median nightly rate:** $175/night | **Occupancy:** 66% - **Estimated annual STR gross:** ~$42,158/yr - **vs long-term rent:** $21,840/yr (+93% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record. - **Transport:** Well-connected inner-city location
BULL CASE
If Morwell maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.2%, median prices could reach $425,500 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Morwell pull back 10-15% from $370,000, with vacancy rising to 3.1% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- **Albury** (VIC): $417,893 median, 4.7% yield, 1.7% 1yr growth - **Alexandra** (VIC): $471,000 median, 0.0% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth - **Ararat** (VIC): $390,000 median, 5.3% yield, 5.4% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Morwell presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 5.9% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current growth phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $333,000 – $407,000 - Minimum gross yield to target: 6.2% - Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.