Mount Martha VIC Property Investment

Mornington Peninsula · 3934 · Score: 62/100 · Hold

Median House Price
$1.38M
Rental Yield
3.4%
Vacancy Rate
2.2%
Median Weekly Rent
$895/wk
Median Unit Price
$789K
Population
19,846
Days on Market
159 days
Annual Growth
3.2%

Mount Martha Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market

Avg Nightly Rate
$644/night
Occupancy Rate
33.94%
Est. Annual Revenue
$70K

Estimated revenue assumes year-round availability. Non-hosted short-stays are night-capped in some councils (e.g. 60 nights across most of Byron Shire, 180 in Ballina, Muswellbrook and parts of Greater Sydney) and levied in Victoria — the legal cap can cut achievable income well below this figure. Run STR Check for the rules on a specific address.

AI Investment Analysis

Mount Martha VIC Investment Brief

## 1. Investment Verdict Hold – the key figure is the median house price of $1,384,387 (sole source: OnTheHouse, not peer‑validated).

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $1,384,387 (sole source). - Growth trend: not supplied in the data set. - Days on market: not supplied.

With a median price near $1.38 m, the market sits in the higher‑end of the Peninsula. The lack of growth and DOM figures means we cannot pinpoint whether buyers or sellers have the edge today, but the Investment Scorecard (62/100) suggests a relatively balanced environment rather than a hot seller’s market.

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## 3. Rental Market - Vacancy rate: not supplied. - Weekly rent: not supplied. - Gross yield: not supplied. - Demand rating: not supplied.

The absence of rental metrics prevents a precise yield calculation. The Scorecard rating of 62/100 implies moderate rental strength, but investors should seek current vacancy and rent data before committing to a long‑term rental (LTR) strategy.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity - STR nightly rate: not supplied. - Occupancy: not supplied. - Estimated annual revenue: not supplied.

Because STR specifics are missing, we cannot quantify the revenue potential. Until reliable STR data is obtained, a conservative approach is to treat LTR as the default option.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects, transport upgrades, employment base: not supplied.

Without explicit information on new developments or major employers, we cannot identify concrete demand drivers or constraints. Generally, Mount Martha benefits from its coastal location and proximity to local amenities, but investors should monitor council releases for upcoming infrastructure.

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## 6. Bull Case If the suburb experiences price appreciation and rental demand that outpaces supply, capital growth could lift the median above the current $1,384,387 level and improve yields. The exact upside magnitude cannot be quantified from the available data, but a sustained upward trend would shift the Scorecard toward a stronger “Buy” signal.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Detail (numbers where available) | |------|----------------------------------| | Data reliability | Median price comes from a single source (OnTheHouse) – no peer validation. | | Vacancy risk | Vacancy rate not provided; unknown exposure for LTR investors. | | Employer concentration | Employment base not disclosed; potential hidden dependency on a few local employers. | | Supply pipeline | No data on upcoming housing supply; a surge could pressure prices and yields. | | Interest‑rate sensitivity | As with all Australian property, higher rates could reduce buyer capacity and increase holding costs. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry range: around the median – roughly $1.38 m (sole‑source figure). - Minimum yield to target: not calculable from the supplied data; investors should aim for a yield that meets their personal hurdle rate once rent figures are known. - Watch signals: 1. Publication of peer‑validated median price data. 2. Release of vacancy and rent statistics for the suburb. 3. Announcement of any major infrastructure or employment projects. 4. Changes in the national interest‑rate environment. - Recommended strategy: Maintain a Hold position while gathering the missing rental and infrastructure data. If future data shows rising rents, low vacancy and confirmed growth projects, consider moving to a Buy stance; if vacancy spikes or supply overwhelms demand, shift to Avoid.

Gentrification Index

Pre-gentrification2.5/10
▼High SEIFA decile — already upgraded or established affluent area
—Moderate capital growth (4.9% CAGR)
▲Active development pipeline (4684 approvals) — supply attracting new residents
▲Strong public transport infrastructure — supports walkable gentrification

Growth Forecast

low confidence
1yr Forecast
4.4%
p.a.
2yr Forecast
4.0%
p.a.
5yr Forecast
3.5%
p.a.

Basis: 5yr CAGR 4.9% + 10yr CAGR 5.4%

Growth drivers
  • +Low rental vacancy (2.2%) — constrained supply
  • +Premium transport infrastructure — supports long-term capital growth
Headwinds
  • −Slow market (159 days avg) — buyer hesitancy
  • −High supply pipeline (4684 new approvals) — may cap price growth

Suburb Metric Thresholds

7 green5 yellow4 red
Rental Vacancy Rate
2.2 high impact
Days on Market
159 high impact
Weekly Rent (house)
895 medium impact
5yr Price CAGR
4.9 high impact
10yr Price CAGR
5.41 high impact
1yr Price Growth
3.23 medium impact
Population Growth
1.36 high impact
Median Household Income
2097 medium impact
Unemployment Rate
2.8 medium impact
Public Transport Score
25 medium impact
School Zone Quality
7.1 medium impact
Distance to CBD
52.85 medium impact
SEIFA Advantage/Disadvantage
8 medium impact
Owner Occupier Rate
84.2 medium impact
Gross Rental Yield (%)
3.36 high impact
Net Rental Yield (%)
1.86 high impact

Macro Environment

Macro Indicators

Cash Rate

4.35%

▲ 0.25%

Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-07

Suburb Supply & Demand

Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals

1,016

2020

992

2021

1,050

2022

986

2023

640

2025

New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply

Socio-Economic Profile

Source: ABS Census 2021

SEIFA Index · Postcode 3934

Most disadvantagedLeast disadvantaged

Decile 10 of 10 — Low disadvantage

Population

19,846

Education (IEO)

9/10

Econ. Resources (IER)

10/10

10-Year Investment Projection

Modelled on Mount Martha VIC data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.

Pre-filled: $895/wk median rent for Mount Martha. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.

Schools

In your catchment

Mount Martha Primary School
PrimaryGovernment
7.8/10
Dromana Secondary College
SecondaryGovernment
6.3/10

These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.

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Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.