Portsea VIC Property Investment
Mornington Peninsula · 3944 · Score: 71/100 · Buy
Portsea Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Portsea VIC Investment Brief
BUY — $2,800,000 (pending peer validation) median with 10.5%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Portsea has compounded at 10.5%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $2,800,000 (pending peer validation) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 38 days (roughly balanced conditions).
- Median house: $2,800,000 (pending peer validation) | Units: $1,065,497
- Gross yield: 1.7% | Net yield: 0.2%
- 5yr price CAGR: 10.5%/yr | 3yr forecast: 4.3%/yr
- Population: 787 | Owner-occupier rate: 91% | Affluence: Very High
- Supply pipeline: Moderate — Strong population growth likely attracting new development approvals
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.3% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $900/wk | Days on market: 38 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
Insufficient STR data for this suburb. Run a specific address analysis for property-level STR projections.
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Portsea maintains 9%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.6%, median prices could reach $3,220,000 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Portsea pull back 10-15% from $2,800,000, with vacancy rising to 4.1% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Premium price point limits buyer pool and increases interest rate sensitivity
- - Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Shoreham (VIC): $2,200,000 median, 2.1% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
- Flinders (VIC): $2,400,000 median, 2.0% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
- Panton Hill (VIC): $2,060,343 median, 0.9% yield, 10.2% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Portsea presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 1.7% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current boom phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $2,520,000 – $3,080,000
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 10.5% + 10yr CAGR 7.0%
- +Strong population growth (9.1%/yr) driving demand
- +Low rental vacancy (2.3%) — constrained supply
- +Premium transport infrastructure — supports long-term capital growth
- −High supply pipeline (4684 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
1,016
2020
992
2021
1,050
2022
986
2023
640
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 3944
Decile 10 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
787
Education (IEO)
10/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
10/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Portsea VIC data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $900/wk median rent for Portsea. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
Analyse a Property in Portsea
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.