Thornhill Park VIC Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $653,623 - Median unit price: $514,155 - 1‑yr price growth: +1.6% - 5‑yr CAGR: +2.2% per year - 3‑yr growth forecast: +4.3%

*Signal:* Price growth is modest but positive, and the 3‑year forecast points to accelerating appreciation. With limited price upside already built‑in, buyers can negotiate modest discounts, while sellers benefit from a market that is still trending upward.

*Days on market:* Data not supplied – we cannot comment on the speed of sales.

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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $450 / wk - Gross rental yield: 3.6%

*Vacancy rate & demand rating:* Data not supplied – we cannot quantify vacancy risk or demand strength.

*Interpretation:* A 3.6% gross yield sits near the national average for outer‑metro suburbs, indicating a reasonable cash‑flow base for long‑term investors. Without vacancy data, investors should assume a neutral risk profile and monitor local vacancy trends once they acquire a property.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental (STR) Opportunity - STR nightly rate, occupancy & estimated annual revenue: Data not supplied

*Conclusion:* With no STR metrics, we cannot calculate an STR yield or compare it to the 3.6% long‑term rental yield. Until STR data becomes available, the default strategy is to focus on long‑term rental (LTR).

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects, transport links, employment base: Data not supplied

*Implication:* In the absence of specific infrastructure or employment information, we must rely on the price‑growth figures and the suburb’s proximity to Melbourne’s CBD (within 5 km) as the primary demand catalyst.

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## 6. Bull Case Assume the 3‑year growth forecast of +4.3% materialises each year:

\*Projection uses compound growth: Future = Current × (1 + 0.043)³.

Upside: Capital gains of roughly $107,000 for a house and $85,000 for a unit, plus potential rent growth that keeps the yield around 3.6%.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Quantified concern | |------|--------------------| | Vacancy risk | No vacancy data – a sudden rise above the national average (≈2.5%–3%) could erode the 3.6% yield. | | Single‑employer dependency | No employment data – if the suburb relies heavily on one major employer, any downsizing could impact both price and rent. | | Supply pipeline | No data on new dwellings – a surge in approvals could increase inventory and pressure yields. | | Interest‑rate sensitivity | With a modest 1.6% annual price increase, higher rates could suppress buyer demand and stall price growth. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry price range: - Houses: $620,000 – $680,000 (around the median with a 5% negotiation band). - Units: $490,000 – $540,000.

• Minimum yield target: 3.5% gross (slightly below the current 3.6% to allow for minor rent fluctuations).

• Watch signals:

• Recommended strategy: Acquire a house or unit at the lower end of the entry band, lock in a 3‑year fixed mortgage to mitigate rate risk, and hold for 3–5 years to capture the forecasted 4.3% annual price appreciation while collecting steady rental income. Re‑assess annually for any changes in vacancy, supply pipeline, or macro‑economic conditions.