Carey Park WA Property Investment

---

## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $653,372 - Median unit price: $638,487 - 1‑year price growth: +19.2 % – a strong short‑term rally. - 5‑year CAGR: +0.5 % per year – long‑term growth has essentially flat‑lined. - 3‑year growth forecast: +13.5 % – analysts expect another uplift. - Days on market: *data not provided*

What it signals: - Sellers have recently benefited from a 19.2 % jump, giving them confidence to list. - Buyers should be cautious; the 0.5 % 5‑year CAGR shows the market has been stagnant over a longer horizon, so price expectations need to be realistic. - The forecasted 13.5 % growth over the next three years suggests a modest upside, but without days‑on‑market data we cannot gauge the speed of transactions.

---

## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $580 - Gross rental yield: 4.6 % - Vacancy rate: *data not provided* - Demand rating: *cannot be quantified without vacancy data, but a 4.6 % yield indicates moderate investor demand.*

Implication for investors: A 4.6 % yield sits above the national average for many capital cities, offering a decent income buffer. However, the unknown vacancy rate means investors should verify local occupancy before committing.

---

## 4. Short‑Term Rental (STR) Opportunity - STR nightly rate: *data not provided* - STR occupancy: *data not provided* - Estimated annual STR revenue: *cannot be calculated*

Conclusion: With no STR metrics available, we cannot assess the profitability of a short‑term rental. Given the solid 4.6 % long‑term yield, LTR remains the safer default strategy until STR data emerges.

---

## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects, transport upgrades, major employers: *data not provided*

Interpretation: The absence of specific infrastructure or employment information limits our ability to identify external demand catalysts. Investors should seek council or planning releases for any upcoming developments.

---

## 6. Bull Case Assume the 3‑year forecast of +13.5 % materialises:

• House price projection: $653,372 × 1.135 ≈ $741,419
• Unit price projection: $638,487 × 1.135 ≈ $724,844

If rental yields hold at 4.6 % and rents stay at $580 pw, the cash‑flow component remains unchanged while capital growth adds roughly $88,000 (houses) or $86,000 (units) over three years.

---

## 7. Risks | Risk | Quantified element (if available) | Comment | |------|-----------------------------------|---------| | Vacancy risk | *Vacancy rate not supplied* | Higher than expected vacancy could erode the 4.6 % yield. | | Interest‑rate sensitivity | Current yield 4.6 % | Rising rates could push mortgage costs above the yield, squeezing net returns. | | Supply pipeline | *No data on new dwellings* | A surge in new housing could increase competition and push rents down. | | Single‑employer dependency | *No employment data* | If the suburb relies heavily on one large employer, a downturn there would affect both rent and price stability. |

---

## 8. The Play - Entry price range: $638,487 – $653,372 (units to houses) - Minimum yield target: ≥ 4.6 % (to match the current gross yield) - Watch signals: 1. Release of days‑on‑market statistics – a rise would indicate slowing demand. 2. Vacancy rate updates – any upward movement threatens cash flow. 3. Interest‑rate announcements – higher rates could compress net yields. 4. Any announced infrastructure or major employer projects – could lift both rent and price growth.

Recommended strategy: Acquire within the stated price band, lock in a mortgage that leaves a net yield above 4 % after financing costs, and hold for 3‑5 years to capture the forecasted 13.5 % capital appreciation while enjoying a solid rental income. Re‑evaluate if vacancy data or new supply signals emerge.