Hillarys WA Property Investment

THE MARKET

Hillarys has compounded at 9.8%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $939,895 in 2021 is worth $1,500,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 12 days (sellers have the leverage). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $2,393,883 by 2031.

- **Median house:** $1,500,000 | **Units:** $379,180 - **Gross yield:** 3.1% | **Net yield:** 1.6% - **5yr price CAGR:** 9.8%/yr | **3yr forecast:** 11.1%/yr - **Population:** 19,849 | **Owner-occupier rate:** 32% | **Affluence:** Very High

- **Supply pipeline:** Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline

RENTAL SNAPSHOT

- **Vacancy:** 1.8% (improving) | **Rental demand:** High - **Median weekly rent:** $900/wk | **Days on market:** 12 (improving) - Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.

SHORT-TERM RENTAL

- **Median nightly rate:** $165/night | **Occupancy:** 66% - **Estimated annual STR gross:** ~$39,748/yr - **vs long-term rent:** $46,800/yr (comparable — LTR offers simpler management)

INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS

- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record. - **Transport:** Well-connected inner-city location

BULL CASE

If Hillarys maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.3%, median prices could reach $1,725,000 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

BEAR CASE

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Hillarys pull back 10-15% from $1,500,000, with vacancy rising to 3.2% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

KEY RISKS

- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb

COMPARABLE MARKETS

- **Alfred Cove** (WA): $1,500,000 median, 2.8% yield, 20.0% 1yr growth - **Ardross** (WA): $1,800,000 median, 2.9% yield, 18.6% 1yr growth - **Attadale** (WA): $1,900,000 median, 3.0% yield, 5.6% 1yr growth

THE PLAY

Hillarys presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 3.1% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current growth phase of the market cycle.

- Entry range: $1,350,000 – $1,650,000 - Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5% - Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market holding under 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.