Ocean Reef WA Property Investment

THE MARKET

Ocean Reef has compounded at 7.6%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $970,659 in 2021 is worth $1,400,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 13 days (sellers have the leverage). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $2,019,247 by 2031.

- **Median house:** $1,400,000 | **Units:** $395,959 - **Gross yield:** 3.7% | **Net yield:** 2.2% - **5yr price CAGR:** 7.6%/yr | **3yr forecast:** 8.6%/yr - **Population:** 38,468 | **Owner-occupier rate:** 35% | **Affluence:** High

- **Supply pipeline:** Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline

RENTAL SNAPSHOT

- **Vacancy:** 3.0% (stable) | **Rental demand:** Moderate - **Median weekly rent:** $993/wk | **Days on market:** 13 (improving) - Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.

SHORT-TERM RENTAL

- **Median nightly rate:** $165/night | **Occupancy:** 66% - **Estimated annual STR gross:** ~$39,748/yr - **vs long-term rent:** $51,636/yr (comparable — LTR offers simpler management)

INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS

- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record. - **Transport:** Standard suburban transport access

BULL CASE

If Ocean Reef maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $1,610,000 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

BEAR CASE

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Ocean Reef pull back 10-15% from $1,400,000, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

KEY RISKS

- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb

COMPARABLE MARKETS

- **Alfred Cove** (WA): $1,500,000 median, 2.8% yield, 20.0% 1yr growth - **Ardross** (WA): $1,800,000 median, 2.9% yield, 18.6% 1yr growth - **Bayswater** (WA): $1,100,000 median, 3.5% yield, 19.7% 1yr growth

THE PLAY

Ocean Reef presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and moderate rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 3.7% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current growth phase of the market cycle.

- Entry range: $1,260,000 – $1,540,000 - Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5% - Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market holding under 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.