Success WA Property Investment

## 2. Market Overview Success’s median house price sits at $918,000, with units at $547,500. The market delivered 15.7% price growth over the past year, placing it in a recovery cycle. The 5-year CAGR of 1.3%/yr shows the suburb lagged during the downturn but is now rebounding sharply. Days on market data is unavailable, but the combination of strong growth and a 0.9% vacancy rate signals a seller’s market. Buyers face competition, but investors with capital can capitalise on momentum before the 3-year forecast of 13.5% growth fully plays out.

## 3. Rental Market The 0.9% vacancy rate is critically low—anything under 2% is considered tight. Median weekly rent is $780/week, generating a gross rental yield of 4.4%. Rental demand is rated very high, supported by a 74% owner-occupier rate that limits rental supply. For investors, this means minimal vacancy risk and strong rental income. The yield beats the Perth median (approx. 3.8%) and is competitive nationally. With unemployment at 4.5% (below the national average), tenants have stable income to pay rent.

## 4. Short-Term Rental Opportunity The median nightly STR rate is $187/night. Occupancy data is not provided, but assuming a conservative 65% occupancy (typical for outer metro Perth), annual revenue would be approximately $44,400 (187 x 365 x 0.65). Compare this to LTR income of $40,560 (780 x 52). STR yields slightly more but comes with higher management costs and regulatory risk. Given the 0.9% vacancy rate and strong LTR demand, long-term rental is the safer, more reliable play here. STR only makes sense if you can achieve 70%+ occupancy consistently.

## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers Two major METRONET projects are under construction: the Perth Rail Expansion and the Thornlie-Cockburn Link. These will improve connectivity to the CBD and employment hubs. Aubin Grove station is 1.1km away, giving residents direct rail access. The moderate supply pipeline indicates new developments are being approved to meet population growth, but not at a pace that will flood the market. Employment is diversified across Perth’s southern corridor, with no single-employer dependency. The population of 11,340 is growing, and the high owner-occupier rate (74%) suggests stable, long-term demand.

## 6. Bull Case If the recovery cycle continues and the 3-year growth forecast of 13.5% materialises, a house bought today at $918,000 could be worth $1,042,000 by 2027. Combined with rental income of $40,560/year (assuming 3% annual rent growth), total return over three years could exceed $160,000 (capital gain + net rent). The 0.9% vacancy rate provides a buffer: even if vacancy rises to 2%, you still have near-full occupancy. The METRONET projects will likely boost values further once completed, potentially pushing growth above the forecast.

## 7. Risks - Vacancy risk: Currently 0.9%, but if supply catches up or demand softens, vacancy could rise to 2-3%, reducing rental income. Still, this is low risk given the tight market. - Supply pipeline: Moderate. New developments could add stock, but population growth (11,340 and rising) should absorb it. Oversupply is unlikely. - Rate sensitivity: With a median price of $918,000, buyers are sensitive to interest rates. A 1% rate rise could reduce borrowing capacity by 10-15%, cooling demand. - Single-employer dependency: Not identified as a risk here. Employment is diversified across Perth’s southern corridor. - Proximity to CBD: Success is not within 5km of the CBD (it’s about 20km south), so distance is a factor but not a primary risk given strong local infrastructure.

## 8. The Play - Entry range: $850,000–$950,000 for houses; $500,000–$580,000 for units. Target houses for better long-term capital growth. - Minimum yield to target: 4.0% gross yield to ensure positive cash flow after costs. Current yield of 4.4% exceeds this. - Watch signals: Monitor vacancy rate (if it rises above 1.5%, rental demand is softening). Track METRONET completion timelines—delays could slow growth. Watch interest rate announcements; a sustained rise above 5% cash rate could dampen buyer demand. - Recommended strategy: Buy and hold for 3-5 years. Focus on houses near Aubin Grove station (1.1km away) to capture transport-driven demand. Use fixed-rate financing to hedge against rate rises. Reassess after METRONET projects complete.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.