Thornlie Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Thornlie WA Investment Analysis
BUY
— $750,000 median with 8.2%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Thornlie has compounded at 8.2%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $505,737 in 2021 is worth $750,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 8 days (sellers have the leverage). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,112,238 by 2031.
- **Median house:** $750,000 | **Units:** $297,422 - **Gross yield:** 4.7% | **Net yield:** 3.2% - **5yr price CAGR:** 8.2%/yr | **3yr forecast:** 9.3%/yr - **Population:** 31,617 | **Owner-occupier rate:** 33% | **Affluence:** Average
- **Supply pipeline:** Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- **Vacancy:** 1.8% (improving) | **Rental demand:** High - **Median weekly rent:** $680/wk | **Days on market:** 8 (improving) - Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- **Median nightly rate:** $165/night | **Occupancy:** 66% - **Estimated annual STR gross:** ~$39,748/yr - **vs long-term rent:** $35,360/yr (+12% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record. - **Transport:** Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Thornlie maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.3%, median prices could reach $862,500 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Thornlie pull back 10-15% from $750,000, with vacancy rising to 3.2% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- **Albany** (WA): $855,000 median, 3.6% yield, 17.1% 1yr growth - **Alexander Heights** (WA): $825,000 median, 4.7% yield, 13.2% 1yr growth - **Alkimos** (WA): $755,000 median, 4.8% yield, 12.7% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Thornlie presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 4.7% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current growth phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $675,000 – $825,000 - Minimum gross yield to target: 5.0% - Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.