Macgregor ACT Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $818,000 - Median unit price: $625,908 - 1‑yr price growth: 2.0% - 5‑yr CAGR: 3.2% per year - 3‑yr growth forecast: 13.5%

*Signal:* With only 2.0% price growth in the last 12 months but a 13.5% forecast over the next three years, the market is still in an early‑stage appreciation phase. Buyers benefit from modest price inflation and a solid yield, while sellers face limited upside in the short term.

*Days on market:* Data not provided – cannot comment on speed of sales.

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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $660 / wk - Gross rental yield: 4.2%

*Vacancy rate & demand rating:* Data not provided – assume neutral until local vacancy data becomes available.

*What it means:* A 4.2% yield, derived from the $660 weekly rent, indicates a respectable cash‑flow cushion for investors. In the absence of a high vacancy rate, the rental market appears supportive of long‑term holding strategies.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental (STR) Opportunity - STR nightly rate: Data not provided - STR occupancy: Data not provided

*Assessment:* Without nightly‑rate or occupancy figures, we cannot calculate an estimated annual STR revenue. Given the solid long‑term yield (4.2%) and the lack of STR data, LTR remains the clearer path for most investors at this stage.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects, transport links, employment base: Data not provided

*Interpretation:* The 13.5% three‑year growth forecast suggests underlying demand drivers—potentially new infrastructure or employment growth—but specific projects cannot be cited from the supplied data.

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## 6. Bull Case Assume the 13.5% forecast materialises and the rental yield holds at 4.2%:

Capital growth of roughly $110k on a house and $84k on a unit, combined with a 4.2% yield, would deliver a compelling total return for a buy‑and‑hold investor.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Quantified concern | |------|--------------------| | Vacancy risk | No vacancy data – a rise above a typical 2–3% vacancy could erode the 4.2% yield. | | Rate sensitivity | A 1% increase in mortgage rates would reduce net cash flow; the 4.2% gross yield leaves limited buffer. | | Supply pipeline | No data on new dwellings – an influx of new houses/units could pressure prices and rents. | | Growth shortfall | If actual 3‑yr growth falls below the 13.5% forecast (e.g., only 5%), capital gains would be markedly lower. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry range: - Houses: around $818,000 (median) - Units: around $625,908 (median)

• Minimum yield target: ≥ 4.2% gross (to match the current market benchmark).

• Watch signals:

• Recommended strategy: Acquire a property at or below the median price, lock in a mortgage with a fixed rate to mitigate interest‑rate risk, and hold for 3–5 years to capture the projected 13.5% capital appreciation while enjoying the 4.2% gross rental yield. Monitor vacancy and supply data closely; if STR data later emerges showing strong nightly rates and occupancy, reassess the LTR vs. STR mix.