Ashmont NSW Property Investment

---

## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $530,000 - Median unit price: $427,891 - 1‑yr price growth: +16.0 % (strong short‑term upside) - 5‑yr CAGR: +3.8 % per year (steady medium‑term growth) - 3‑yr growth forecast: +13.5 % (projected continuation of the recent rally) - Days on market: *Data not provided*

Signal: The combination of a 16 % annual price jump and a 13.5 % three‑year forecast indicates a seller‑friendly market in the near term. However, the modest 3.8 % long‑term CAGR and a 4.5 % yield suggest that buyers with a cash‑flow focus can still find value, especially if they lock in a price near the current median.

---

## 3. Rental Market | Metric | Value | Comment | |--------|-------|---------| | Median weekly rent | $460 / wk | Supports the 4.5 % yield on the median house price. | | Gross rental yield | 4.5 % | Competitive for a long‑term rental (LTR) in NSW regional suburbs. | | Vacancy rate | *Data not provided* | Unable to quantify vacancy risk; investors should seek local vacancy surveys before purchase. | | Demand rating | *Data not provided* | Treat the 4.5 % yield as a proxy that demand is sufficient to sustain current rents. |

Implication: With a 4.5 % yield, the property can generate a solid cash flow, but the unknown vacancy rate adds a layer of uncertainty that should be monitored.

---

## 4. Short‑Term Rental (STR) Opportunity - Nightly rate: *Data not provided* - Occupancy (average % of nights booked): *Data not provided* - Estimated annual STR revenue: *Cannot be calculated without nightly rate & occupancy.*

Conclusion: Because STR metrics are unavailable, we cannot reliably compare LTR versus STR. In the absence of evidence that STR would outperform the 4.5 % LTR yield, the default recommendation is to pursue long‑term rental.

---

## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects / transport upgrades: *Data not provided* - Employment base: *Data not provided*

Drivers: The 13.5 % three‑year growth forecast suggests market confidence, likely stemming from broader regional growth trends rather than a single local project. Without specific infrastructure data, investors should watch for any announced road, rail, or amenity upgrades that could lift demand.

---

## 6. Bull Case Assume the 3‑year forecast of +13.5 % materialises and the rental yield remains at 4.5 %:

The upside is a ~$74 k capital gain on a median house plus a modest rent lift, delivering a combined return of roughly 8–9 % p.a. over three years (capital + cash flow).

---

## 7. Risks | Risk | Quantified aspect | Impact | |------|-------------------|--------| | Vacancy risk | *Vacancy rate not supplied* | If vacancy exceeds 5 %, cash flow could fall below the 4.5 % yield target. | | Single‑employer dependency | *Employment data not supplied* | Over‑reliance on one major employer would amplify downside if that employer contracts. | | Supply pipeline | *No data on new dwellings* | A surge in new houses/units could push prices down and raise vacancy. | | Rate sensitivity | Current yield 4.5 % | If the cash‑rate rises above 5 %, net cash flow could turn negative after financing costs. |

---

## 8. The Play - Entry price range: Target purchases around the median – $530,000 for a house or $427,891 for a unit. - Minimum yield to target: ≥ 4.5 % gross (higher if financing costs exceed 4 %). - Watch signals: 1. Local vacancy statistics (once released). 2. Announcements of new housing supply or major infrastructure. 3. Movements in the Reserve Bank of Australia cash‑rate. - Recommended strategy: Acquire at or below the median price, lock in a mortgage with a rate comfortably below the 4.5 % gross yield, and hold for 3–5 years to capture the projected 13.5 % price appreciation while collecting steady rental income. Adjust the portfolio if vacancy data or supply pipelines indicate a shift toward a buyer’s market.