Illabo NSW Property Investment

## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $555,458 - Median unit price: $449,709 - 5‑year CAGR: 6.8 % per annum - 3‑year growth forecast: 13.5 % (total) - Days on market: data not available

Signal: Steady long‑term price growth (6.8 % CAGR) and a strong 13.5 % forecast suggest buyers can still expect capital appreciation. The lack of DOM data means we cannot gauge current seller pressure, so buyers should move cautiously and sellers can price competitively.

## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $450 / wk - Gross rental yield: 4.2 % - Vacancy rate: data not available - Demand rating: data not available

Implication: A 4.2 % yield sits above the national average for similar regional suburbs, indicating decent cash‑flow potential. Absence of vacancy and demand metrics means investors should verify local occupancy before committing.

## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity - STR nightly rate: data not available - STR occupancy: data not available - Estimated annual STR revenue: data not available

Conclusion: With no STR data, we cannot model short‑term returns. Until reliable nightly‑rate and occupancy figures emerge, long‑term rental (LTR) remains the safer choice.

## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects / transport: data not available - Employment base: data not available

Drivers/Limits: The suburb’s growth hinges on undisclosed infrastructure or employment developments. Investors should monitor local council releases for any new projects that could lift demand.

## 6. Bull Case Assume the 13.5 % three‑year growth forecast materialises and rental yields stay at 4.2 %:

• House price after 3 years: $555,458 × 1.135 ≈ $630,419
• Annual rent (weekly × 52): $450 × 52 = $23,400
• Annual gross income after 3 years (same rent): $23,400
• Total 3‑year return (capital + rent): ≈ $78,961 capital gain + $70,200 rent = $149,161 (≈ 26.9 % cumulative).

If a new transport link or employer is announced, price growth could exceed the forecast, further boosting upside.

## 7. Risks | Risk | Metric / Evidence | |------|-------------------| | Vacancy risk | No vacancy data – could be higher than expected. | | Single‑employer dependency | No employment data – a dominant local employer could amplify downside if it downsizes. | | Supply pipeline | No information on new builds – a sudden influx of units could compress yields. | | Rate sensitivity | 4.2 % yield leaves limited buffer if interest rates rise above 5 % (net cash flow could turn negative). |

## 8. The Play - Entry price range: $450,000 – $600,000 (covers both houses and units). - Minimum yield target: ≥ 4.2 % gross (to match the suburb’s current average). - Watch signals: 1. Announcement of new infrastructure (roads, rail, schools). 2. Publication of local vacancy statistics. 3. Any major employer expansion or contraction. - Recommended strategy: Acquire within the entry range, aim for properties that already generate the 4.2 % yield, and hold for 3–5 years to capture the projected 13.5 % capital growth. Re‑assess if vacancy data emerges or if a significant supply increase is announced.