Keiraville NSW Property Investment
Wollongong · 2500 · Score: 61/100 · Hold
Keiraville Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Keiraville NSW Investment Brief
## 1. Investment Verdict Hold – the key figure is the 3.1 % gross rental yield, which sits at the low‑end of what many investors consider a comfortable return in a capital‑growth suburb.
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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $1,321,201 - Median unit price: $851,904 - 1‑year price growth: +3.9 % - 5‑year CAGR: +6.8 % per annum - 3‑year growth forecast: +13.5 %
*Signal:* Price growth remains positive but modest (just under 4 % in the past year). The 5‑year CAGR of 6.8 % shows the suburb has delivered solid long‑term appreciation, and the 13.5 % forecast over the next three years suggests continued upside. Because the days‑on‑market figure is not supplied, we cannot quantify current buyer‑seller balance, but the modest recent price rise implies sellers are not in a dominant position.
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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $800 - Gross rental yield: 3.1 %
*Missing data:* vacancy rate and demand rating are not provided, so we cannot comment on rental tightness or investor sentiment directly. *Interpretation:* A 3.1 % yield indicates a moderate cash‑flow environment; investors should rely more on capital growth than on rental income alone.
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## 4. Short‑Term Rental (STR) Opportunity No STR‑specific data (nightly rate, occupancy, annual revenue) are supplied. Consequently we cannot calculate an STR yield or compare it to the long‑term rental (LTR) return. With the current 3.1 % LTR yield, investors should treat STR as a potential secondary strategy only after obtaining local STR market intelligence.
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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers The data set does not list any known projects, transport upgrades, or major employment hubs. Without this information we cannot pinpoint specific demand catalysts or constraints for Keiraville.
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## 6. Bull Case Assuming the 13.5 % 3‑year growth forecast materialises:
| Asset | Current Median | Projected 3‑yr Value (13.5 % rise) | Absolute upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| House | $1,321,201 | ≈ $1,500,000 | ≈ $179,000 |
| Unit | $851,904 | ≈ $966,000 | ≈ $114,000 |
If yields stay at 3.1 % while capital values climb, total investor return could exceed 6‑7 % p.a. (combining cash flow and appreciation).
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7. Risks
| Risk | Quantified aspect (where available) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Yield sensitivity | Gross yield 3.1 % | Small margin for interest‑rate hikes; higher rates could erode net cash flow. |
| Vacancy risk | Vacancy rate not provided | Unknown rental‑market tightness could affect cash flow. |
| Supply pipeline | No data on new dwellings | Unexpected new supply could pressure prices and yields. |
| Employer concentration | No employment data supplied | If the suburb relies heavily on a single large employer, any downsizing could impact demand. |
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8. The Play
- Entry range: Target purchases near the median – $1.3 m for houses or $850k for units.
- Minimum yield target: ≥ 3.1 % gross (the current suburb average).
- Watch signals:
- Recommended strategy: Maintain a hold position, focusing on long‑term capital growth while monitoring rental‑market data (vacancy, demand rating) and any emerging STR opportunities. If the 3‑year growth outlook proves robust and yields stay stable, consider modest add‑on purchases to benefit from upside.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 6.8% + 10yr CAGR 6.4%
- +Low rental vacancy (2.4%) — constrained supply
- −High supply pipeline (6738 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-06
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
1,211
2020
1,385
2021
1,228
2022
1,346
2023
1,568
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2500
Decile 6 of 10 — Average
Population
43,472
Education (IEO)
9/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
2/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Keiraville NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $800/wk median rent for Keiraville. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.