Mortdale NSW Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $1,835,000 - Median unit price: $795,000 - 1‑yr price growth: 23.0 % (strong upside) - 5‑yr CAGR: 2.1 % / yr (steady long‑term growth) - 3‑yr forecast: 12.0 % (projected continuation) - Days on market: *data not supplied*

Signal: The 23.0 % annual surge and a 12.0 % three‑year forecast indicate a seller‑favoured market right now. Buyers should be prepared for competition and may need to act quickly, while sellers can command premium prices.

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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $900 - Gross rental yield: 2.5 % - Vacancy rate: *data not supplied* - Demand rating: *data not supplied*

Implication: A 2.5 % yield is modest, suggesting rental income alone will not cover high financing costs unless interest rates are low. The $900 weekly rent provides a solid cash flow base, but without vacancy data we cannot fully gauge rental stability. Investors should verify vacancy levels before committing.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity - STR nightly rate: *data not supplied* - STR occupancy: *data not supplied* - Estimated annual STR revenue: *cannot be calculated*

Conclusion: With no STR metrics available, we cannot compare long‑term rental (LTR) versus short‑term rental (STR). Until reliable STR data emerges, LTR remains the safer, data‑backed option.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects / transport / employment base: *data not supplied*

Interpretation: The strong price growth and high investment score imply underlying demand drivers (e.g., good transport links or local amenities), but specific projects cannot be cited without data. Investors should conduct a site‑specific check on upcoming infrastructure before finalising a purchase.

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## 6. Bull Case Assume the 3‑year growth forecast of 12.0 % materialises:

• House price after 3 years: $1,835,000 × (1 + 0.12) ≈ $2,056,000 (≈ $221,000 upside)
• Unit price after 3 years: $795,000 × (1 + 0.12) ≈ $891,000 (≈ $96,000 upside)

If rental yields improve to 3.0 % (from 2.5 %) while rent stays at $900 wk, annual rent would be $46,800, delivering a $1,400 increase in gross yield for houses and $1,200 for units.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Numerical Indicator | Impact | |------|---------------------|--------| | Vacancy risk | *No vacancy data* | Uncertainty around cash‑flow stability; investors should obtain current vacancy figures. | | Rate sensitivity | Current yield 2.5 % | Small margin above financing costs; a 1 % rise in interest rates could turn cash flow negative. | | Supply pipeline | *No data on new dwellings* | If a large number of new units enter the market, price growth and yields could soften. | | Employment concentration | *No employer data* | Lack of a dominant employer reduces single‑employer risk, but also means demand may be more broadly based. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry range: - Units: $795,000 (median) - Houses: $1,835,000 (median)

• Minimum yield target: > 2.5 % (aim for at least 3 % to build a buffer against rate hikes).

• Watch signals:

• Recommended strategy:

With the strong 1‑year growth figure and a solid investment score, Mortdale offers a compelling capital‑growth opportunity, provided investors manage the modest yield and monitor the data gaps highlighted above.