Mount Keira NSW Property Investment

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### 1. Investment Verdict Hold – the key figure is the 3.9 % gross rental yield, which sits just below the 4 % threshold that typically separates “cash‑flow‑positive” from “cash‑flow‑negative” properties in this price bracket.

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### 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $1,224,868 - Median unit price: $748,102 - 1‑year price growth: 8.2 % - 5‑year CAGR: 8.3 % per annum - 3‑year growth forecast: 13.5 % (forward‑looking) - Days on market: *Data not supplied*

What it signals: - Double‑digit price growth over the past year and a strong 5‑year compound rate indicate a seller‑favoured market with upward price pressure. - The 13.5 % forecast for the next three years suggests the trend is expected to continue, giving buyers a limited window to lock in price before further appreciation. - Without days‑on‑market data we cannot quantify the speed of sales, but the price‑growth numbers alone imply high demand and tight supply.

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### 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $910 - Gross rental yield: 3.9 % - Vacancy rate: *Data not supplied* - Demand rating: *Data not supplied*

Implication for investors: A 3.9 % yield is modest for a property priced above $1 m. It suggests reasonable rental income but not enough to offset financing costs in a high‑interest‑rate environment without additional upside from capital growth. Investors should be comfortable with a long‑term hold rather than expecting immediate cash flow.

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### 4. Short‑Term Rental (STR) Opportunity - Nightly rate: *Data not supplied* - Occupancy (%): *Data not supplied* - Estimated annual STR revenue: *Data not supplied*

Verdict: Because STR metrics are unavailable, we cannot quantify the revenue potential. Given the strong long‑term growth outlook and modest long‑term yield, long‑term rental (LTR) remains the safer default until STR data becomes available.

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### 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects, transport upgrades, employment hubs: *Data not supplied*

Current driver: The analysis must rely on the price‑growth figures, which imply that broader regional factors (e.g., proximity to Wollongong’s employment precincts, existing transport links) are already supporting demand. Without specific project data, we cannot pinpoint additional catalysts or constraints.

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### 6. Bull Case Assuming the 3‑year forecast of 13.5 % materialises:

*Rounded to the nearest thousand for clarity.

If yields stay at 3.9 % while prices climb, the total return (rent + capital growth) could exceed 7 % per annum over the three‑year horizon.

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### 7. Risks | Risk | Quantified Concern | Comment | |------|-------------------|---------| | Vacancy | *No vacancy data* – could be higher than expected, eroding the already modest 3.9 % yield. | | Single‑employer dependence | *No employment‑base data* – if the suburb leans heavily on one sector, a downturn there would pressure both rent and price growth. | | Supply pipeline | *No new‑development data* – a surge in new housing could lift vacancy and dampen price growth. | | Interest‑rate sensitivity | Current yield 3.9 % leaves a narrow margin; a 1 % rise in borrowing costs could push net cash flow negative. |

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### 8. The Play - Entry price range: - Houses: $1.15 m – $1.25 m (around the median) - Units: $730 k – $770 k (around the median)

• Target minimum gross yield: ≥ 4 % (to provide a buffer above the current 3.9 %).

• Watch signals:

• Recommended strategy:
• - Hold existing positions, focusing on long‑term appreciation.
• - For new investors, acquire at the lower end of the entry range and aim to renovate or add value to push the rent toward $1,000 wk, nudging the gross yield closer to 4 %.
• - Monitor the market for any STR data releases; if nightly rates and occupancy prove strong, consider a dual‑let approach (partial LTR, partial STR) to lift overall yield.

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*All figures are drawn exclusively from the supplied data; where data were absent, we have noted the gap rather than infer or fabricate numbers.*