Toukley NSW Property Investment

## 1. Investment Verdict Based on the data, the investment verdict for Toukley, NSW is Hold, with the single most important number being the Investment Scorecard rating of 54.0/100. This score indicates a neutral outlook for the suburb, suggesting that it is not currently a top pick for investment, but also not a suburb to avoid.

## 2. Market Overview The median house price in Toukley is $949,711, while the median unit price is $657,376. The market has experienced a 1-year price growth of -0.2%, indicating a slight decline in property values. However, the 5-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is 7.9%/yr, suggesting a longer-term growth trend. The current market cycle is described as cooling, which may signal a buyer's market. With a gross rental yield of 3.2% and median weekly rent of $580/wk, buyers may find opportunities to negotiate prices. Sellers, on the other hand, may need to be more flexible with their pricing expectations.

## 3. Rental Market The rental market in Toukley is characterized by a vacancy rate of 2.4%, indicating a relatively tight market. The median weekly rent is $580/wk, and the gross rental yield is 3.2%. The demand for rentals is described as high, which is a positive sign for investors. With an owner-occupier rate of 62%, the suburb has a mix of renters and owners, which can contribute to a stable rental market. For investors, the rental market in Toukley appears to offer a relatively stable and predictable income stream.

## 4. Short-Term Rental Opportunity The short-term rental (STR) market in Toukley has a median nightly rate of $677/night and an occupancy rate of 40%. This translates to an estimated annual revenue of approximately $124,000 (assuming 40% occupancy and $677/night). Compared to the long-term rental (LTR) market, the STR market may offer higher potential revenue, but it also comes with higher management costs and more uncertainty. Investors should carefully consider their options and weigh the pros and cons of each strategy.

## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers There are no major projects on file for Toukley, and the transport options are standard suburban access. The suburb's population is 4,557, and the unemployment rate is 6.8%. The supply pipeline is described as low, with price growth outpacing new supply and a limited development pipeline. This could contribute to ongoing demand for existing properties and support long-term growth. However, the distance from the CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential, as noted in the scorecard details.

## 6. Bull Case If market conditions hold or improve, the 3-year growth forecast of 13.5% could be achieved, driven by the low supply pipeline and high demand for rentals. With a growing population and limited new supply, property values could increase, making Toukley a more attractive investment option. Investors who buy and hold properties in the suburb could potentially benefit from this growth, especially if they can secure properties at current prices.

## 7. Risks The key risks for Toukley include the distance from the CBD, which may limit long-term capital growth potential. The unemployment rate of 6.8% is also a consideration, as it may impact the local economy and demand for properties. Additionally, the suburb's reliance on a single employer or industry could pose a risk if that industry experiences downturns. Investors should also be aware of the potential for interest rate changes, which could impact borrowing costs and property values. The flood risk and bushfire risk for the suburb are not on record, and investors should order independent certificates to assess these risks. The heritage status of properties in the suburb is also not on record, and investors should confirm this with the council duty planner or a Section 10.7 (NSW) certificate.

## 8. The Play For investors considering Toukley, the entry range for houses is around $949,711, and for units, it is around $657,376. Investors should target a minimum yield of 3.2% to ensure a stable income stream. Watch signals include changes in the local economy, new development projects, and shifts in the rental market. The recommended strategy is to hold existing properties and monitor market conditions, as the current scorecard rating suggests a neutral outlook. Investors should also consider the potential for short-term rental opportunities and weigh the pros and cons of this strategy.

Flood risk: not on record for this suburb in the NSW LEP / state planning overlay. Order an independent flood certificate before commit. Bushfire risk: not on record for this suburb in the state planning overlay. Order an independent BAL (Bushfire Attack Level) assessment before commit. Heritage status is not on record — confirm with the council duty planner / a Section 10.7 (NSW) or equivalent certificate.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.