Warner QLD Property Investment
Moreton Bay · 4500 · Score: 66/100 · Buy
Warner Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Estimated revenue assumes year-round availability. Non-hosted short-stays are night-capped in some councils (e.g. 60 nights across most of Byron Shire, 180 in Ballina, Muswellbrook and parts of Greater Sydney) and levied in Victoria — the legal cap can cut achievable income well below this figure. Run STR Check for the rules on a specific address.
Warner QLD Investment Brief
BUY — 3.2% gross yield on a $1,208,189 median.
THE MARKET
Warner has compounded at 2.8%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $1,052,372 in 2021 is worth $1,208,189 today. Properties are sitting on market for 64 days (buyers have negotiating room). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,387,077 by 2031.
- Median house: $1,208,189 | Units: $855,045
- Gross yield: 3.2% | Net yield: 1.7%
- 5yr price CAGR: 2.8%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 12,264 | Owner-occupier rate: 70% | Affluence: Above Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 1.2% (improving) | Rental demand: Very High
- Median weekly rent: $735/wk | Days on market: 64 (worsening)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $357/night | Occupancy: 44%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$57,294/yr
- vs long-term rent: $38,220/yr (+50% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Brisbane 2032 Olympic Games Infrastructure (Announced)
- Transport: Bray Park station 3.9km away
BULL CASE
If Warner maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 0.8%, median prices could reach $1,389,417 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Warner pull back 10-15% from $1,208,189, with vacancy rising to 2.2% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- North Maclean (QLD): $1,434,538 median, 3.4% yield, 10.9% 1yr growth
- Logan Village (QLD): $1,318,220 median, 3.0% yield, 3.8% 1yr growth
- Flagstone (QLD): $997,635 median, 3.3% yield, 15.1% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Warner presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and very high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 3.2% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current cooling phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $1,087,370 – $1,329,008
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 2.8% + 10yr CAGR 3.4%
- +Very tight rental market (vacancy 1.2%) — upward price pressure
- −Slow market (64 days avg) — buyer hesitancy
- −High supply pipeline (21414 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-06
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
4,057
2020
5,365
2021
4,175
2022
3,011
2023
4,806
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 4500
Decile 7 of 10 — Average
Population
45,656
Education (IEO)
6/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
8/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Warner QLD data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $735/wk median rent for Warner. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
Analyse a Property in Warner
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.