Clarence TAS Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $626,031 - Median unit price: $527,500 - 1‑year price growth: 10.6 % (strong upside) - 5‑year CAGR: 4.6 % per annum - 3‑year growth forecast: 4.1 % per annum - Days on market: data not supplied (N/)

Signal: Double‑digit growth over the past year indicates a seller‑favourable market, but the 5‑year and forecasted growth rates suggest the market is still on an upward trajectory, giving buyers room for capital appreciation.

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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $469 - Gross rental yield: 3.9 % - Vacancy rate: not provided - Demand rating: not provided

Interpretation: A 3.9 % gross yield sits around the national median for capital cities, offering a modest cash‑flow base. Without vacancy or demand data we cannot quantify rental pressure, but the yield indicates a reasonable baseline for long‑term investors.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity - STR nightly rate: not provided - STR occupancy: not provided - Estimated annual STR revenue: not calculable

Conclusion: With no STR metrics available, we cannot compare long‑term rental (LTR) versus short‑term rental (STR). Until STR data emerges, LTR remains the default strategy.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects, transport upgrades, major employers: not supplied

Implication: Absence of specific infrastructure or employment data means we must rely on the strong price growth and scorecard rating as the primary demand drivers for now.

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## 6. Bull Case Assume the 3‑year forecast of 4.1 % annual growth materialises and the 1‑year momentum (10.6 %) sustains for another year:

• House price after 12 months (4.1 % growth): $626,031 × 1.041 ≈ $651,000
• Unit price after 12 months (4.1 % growth): $527,500 × 1.041 ≈ $548,800

If the 10.6 % growth repeats, a house could reach roughly $692,000 – an additional $66,000 of capital gain. Coupled with the existing 3.9 % yield, total return could exceed 8 % in a best‑case scenario.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Quantified Concern (where data exists) | |------|----------------------------------------| | Vacancy risk | Vacancy rate not disclosed – unknown exposure. | | Single‑employer dependency | No employer data – cannot assess concentration risk. | | Supply pipeline | No information on new dwellings – unknown impact on future rents/price pressure. | | Interest‑rate sensitivity | A 1 % rise in rates would increase mortgage costs by roughly $5,000‑$6,000 per year on a $600k loan, compressing net cash flow. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry price range: - Houses: $600k – $650k (around the median) - Units: $500k – $560k (around the median)

• Minimum yield target: ≥ 3.9 % gross (the suburb’s current average).

• Watch signals:

• Recommended strategy: Acquire a median‑priced house or unit, hold for 3‑5 years to capture the projected 4 % annual capital growth, and collect the 3.9 % gross rental yield. Re‑evaluate annually for any emerging STR data or infrastructure announcements that could shift the risk‑reward balance.