Collingwood VIC Property Investment

THE MARKET

Collingwood has compounded at 6.7%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $939,986 in 2021 is worth $1,300,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 43 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,797,900 by 2031.

- **Median house:** $1,300,000 | **Units:** $600,000 - **Gross yield:** 2.9% | **Net yield:** 1.4% - **5yr price CAGR:** 6.7%/yr | **3yr forecast:** 7.6%/yr - **Population:** 8,500 | **Owner-occupier rate:** 35% | **Affluence:** High

- **Supply pipeline:** Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline

RENTAL SNAPSHOT

- **Vacancy:** 2.0% (improving) | **Rental demand:** High - **Median weekly rent:** $728/wk | **Days on market:** 43 (stable) - Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.

SHORT-TERM RENTAL

- **Median nightly rate:** $195/night | **Occupancy:** 74% - **Estimated annual STR gross:** ~$52,670/yr - **vs long-term rent:** $37,856/yr (+39% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)

INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS

- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record. - **Transport:** Well-connected inner-city location

BULL CASE

If Collingwood maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.4%, median prices could reach $1,495,000 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

BEAR CASE

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Collingwood pull back 10-15% from $1,300,000, with vacancy rising to 3.6% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

KEY RISKS

- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb

COMPARABLE MARKETS

- **Ferny Creek** (VIC): $1,037,300 median, 0.0% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth - **Flemington** (VIC): $1,014,500 median, 0.0% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth - **Forest Hill** (VIC): $1,325,000 median, 0.0% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth

THE PLAY

Collingwood presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of strong fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 2.9% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current growth phase of the market cycle.

- Entry range: $1,170,000 – $1,430,000 - Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5% - Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.