Ashfield WA Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $970,000 - Median unit price: $763,462 - 1‑year price growth: 5.9 % - 5‑year CAGR: 3.2 % per annum - 3‑year growth forecast: 13.5 %

*Interpretation* – Price growth of 5.9 % over the past year and a 13.5 % forecast for the next three years indicate an upward trajectory. With no days‑on‑market data, we cannot quantify buyer‑seller balance, but the positive growth trend suggests sellers retain some leverage while buyers still have room to negotiate.

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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $780 / wk - Gross rental yield: 4.2 % - Vacancy rate: N/A - Demand rating: N/A

*Interpretation* – A 4.2 % gross yield sits around the national median for capital cities, offering a modest cash‑flow cushion. Without vacancy or demand data we cannot gauge rental pressure, but the yield suggests the market is neither highly constrained nor overly soft.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity - STR nightly rate: N/A - STR occupancy rate: N/A - Estimated annual STR revenue: N/A

*Interpretation* – No STR data are supplied, so we cannot model short‑term returns. Given the lack of evidence, long‑term rental (LTR) remains the default strategy.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects / transport upgrades: N/A - Employment base: N/A

*Interpretation* – The data set does not list any specific infrastructure or employment catalysts. In the absence of identified drivers, the suburb’s growth appears to be driven by broader regional trends rather than localized projects.

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## 6. Bull Case Assume the 3‑year forecast of 13.5 % materialises and the gross yield improves to 5 % through rent growth.

• House price upside: $970,000 × 1.135 ≈ $1,101,000 (≈ $130k capital gain).
• Unit price upside: $763,462 × 1.135 ≈ $866,000 (≈ $103k capital gain).
• Potential yield lift: $780 wk ÷ $970,000 ≈ 4.2 % now → 5 % if weekly rent rises to $933 wk.

If both capital growth and rent growth occur, investors could see combined returns of roughly 9–10 % p.a. over the next three years.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Quantified Concern | |------|--------------------| | Vacancy risk | Vacancy rate not disclosed; a rise above 5 % would erode the 4.2 % yield. | | Single‑employer dependency | Employment data unavailable; reliance on a dominant employer could amplify local downturns. | | Supply pipeline | No data on upcoming developments; a surge in new housing could pressure prices and yields. | | Rate sensitivity | With a median house price of $970,000, a 1 % rise in interest rates could increase monthly repayments by roughly $200, potentially dampening buyer demand. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry range: Target purchases around the median – $970,000 for houses and $763,462 for units. - Minimum yield target: Aim for ≥ 4.5 % gross yield to provide a buffer above the current 4.2 % level. - Watch signals: 1. Confirmation of the 13.5 % 3‑year growth forecast (e.g., quarterly price reports). 2. Any announced infrastructure or employment projects in the suburb. 3. Changes in vacancy rates or rent growth that push yields above or below 4.5 %. - Recommended strategy: Hold existing positions and consider new acquisitions only if the purchase price can be negotiated to deliver at least a 4.5 % gross yield. Monitor the above signals and be ready to pivot to a buy if price corrections create a better yield, or to a sell if growth stalls and yields fall below the target.