Redcliffe WA Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $860,000 - Median unit price: $643,456 - 1‑year price growth: 23.7 % (very strong recent upside) - 5‑year CAGR: 0.6 % / yr (flat over the longer term) - Days on market: data not supplied (N)

Signal: The 23.7 % jump in the past year points to a seller‑driven market right now. The modest 0.6 % 5‑year CAGR suggests the recent surge may be a short‑term spike rather than a sustained trend, so buyers should be prepared for price corrections if momentum eases.

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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $730 / wk - Gross rental yield: 4.4 % - Vacancy rate: data not supplied (N) - Demand rating: data not supplied (N)

Implication: A 4.4 % gross yield sits above the national average for capital cities, indicating decent cash‑flow potential. Without vacancy data we cannot quantify risk, but the yield suggests the rental market can support an investor’s cash‑flow expectations.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity - STR nightly rate: data not supplied (N) - STR occupancy: data not supplied (N)

Estimated annual STR revenue: cannot be calculated without nightly rate or occupancy.

Conclusion: With no STR metrics available, long‑term rental (LTR) remains the clearer path for investors at this time.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers No specific information on new projects, transport upgrades, or major employers is provided. Consequently we cannot identify concrete demand drivers or constraints for Redcliffe.

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## 6. Bull Case Assume the 3‑year forecast of 13.5 % materialises and the 1‑year momentum sustains:

• House price scenario: $860,000 × 1.135 ≈ $977,100 (≈ $117,100 capital gain)
• Unit price scenario: $643,456 × 1.135 ≈ $730,720 (≈ $87,300 capital gain)

If rental yields stay at 4.4 % and rent grows in line with inflation (≈ 2.5 % / yr), an investor could add roughly $18,000 / yr (house) or $13,500 / yr (unit) in net rent over three years, boosting total returns to the high‑teens percent range.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Numerical indicator | Why it matters | |------|---------------------|----------------| | Price volatility | 1‑yr growth 23.7 % vs 5‑yr CAGR 0.6 % | Recent surge may reverse if market cools. | | Vacancy uncertainty | Vacancy rate not supplied | If vacancy rises above 5 %, cash‑flow could fall below the 4.4 % yield. | | Interest‑rate sensitivity | Yield 4.4 % | A 1 % rise in borrowing cost would erode net yield to ~3.4 %. | | Supply pipeline | No data on new dwellings | Unexpected new stock could lift vacancy and pressure prices. | | Employment concentration | No employer data | If the suburb relies on a single large employer, any downsizing would hit demand. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry range: $643,456 (units) – $860,000 (houses) - Minimum yield target: ≥ 4.4 % gross (to match current market). - Watch signals: 1. Updated 1‑yr price growth – a slowdown below 15 % may signal a peak. 2. Release of vacancy data – a rise above 5 % would flag cash‑flow pressure. 3. Interest‑rate moves – a net‑yield dip below 3.5 % would merit re‑assessment. - Recommended strategy: Acquire a property at the lower end of the price band (preferably a unit) to lock in the 4.4 % yield, hold for 3–5 years, and monitor the above signals. If vacancy remains low and price growth sustains, consider a partial refinance to capture equity and reinvest. If vacancy spikes or growth stalls, shift focus to cash‑flow optimisation or exit.