Cockburn Central WA Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $920,000 - Median unit price: $626,086 - 1‑year price growth: +10.5% - 5‑year CAGR: +1.3% per year - 3‑year growth forecast: +13.5%

The 10.5% price rise over the last 12 months shows strong recent momentum, and the 13.5% forecast for the next three years suggests continued upside. Days‑on‑market data were not supplied, so we cannot quantify how quickly properties are selling. Nonetheless, the combination of double‑digit recent growth and a positive forward forecast signals a seller‑friendly environment in the short term, while the modest 5‑year CAGR indicates that long‑term capital appreciation remains achievable for patient buyers.

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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $770 / wk - Gross rental yield: 4.3%

Vacancy rate and demand rating were not provided. A 4.3% gross yield sits above the national average for many capital‑city suburbs, indicating that rental income can comfortably cover financing costs for most investors. The $770 weekly rent, when annualised ($770 × 52 = $40,040), underpins the 4.3% yield on the median unit price ($626,086 ÷ $40,040 ≈ 4.3%). This level of yield suggests a reasonably healthy rental market for investors.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity No STR‑specific data (nightly rate, occupancy, or estimated annual revenue) were supplied. Without those figures we cannot calculate an STR gross yield or compare it to the long‑term rental (LTR) yield of 4.3%. Based solely on the available data, LTR remains the quantifiable option.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers The data set does not list any concrete infrastructure projects, transport upgrades, or employment‑base details for Cockburn Central. The strong 1‑year growth (10.5%) and the 13.5% three‑year forecast imply that underlying drivers—such as regional development or improved connectivity—are likely supporting demand, but specific projects cannot be cited from the provided information.

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## 6. Bull Case If the 3‑year growth forecast of 13.5% materialises and rental income holds steady:

• Median house price scenario: $920,000 × 1.135 ≈ $1,044,200 (≈ $124,200 upside).
• Median unit price scenario: $626,086 × 1.135 ≈ $710,600 (≈ $84,500 upside).

Assuming the 4.3% gross yield persists, the annual rent on a median unit would remain around $40,040, delivering the same yield on the higher capital value and enhancing total return (capital gain + rental income).

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Quantified Concern (from data) | |------|--------------------------------| | Vacancy risk | Vacancy rate not supplied; a rise could erode the 4.3% yield. | | Single‑employer dependency | Employment‑base details not provided; concentration in one sector could increase sensitivity to sector‑specific downturns. | | Supply pipeline | No data on upcoming housing supply; a surge in new units could pressure rents and yields. | | Rate sensitivity | With a 4.3% gross yield, any increase in borrowing costs that pushes mortgage rates above ~4% could compress net cash flow. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry price range: Target purchases between the median unit price ($626,086) and the median house price ($920,000), i.e., $620k – $920k. - Minimum yield to target: ≥ 4.3% gross to match the suburb’s current average. - Watch signals: 1. Release of any new infrastructure or transport projects in the area. 2. Changes in vacancy rates or rental listings that could signal oversupply. 3. Movements in the cash‑rate that affect borrowing costs. - Recommended strategy: Acquire a property within the stated price band, hold for at least 3‑5 years to capture the forecasted 13.5% capital growth, and rely on the 4.3% gross rental yield for cash‑flow stability. Adjust the portfolio if vacancy data or supply pipeline information emerges that materially alters the yield outlook.