Mindarie WA Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $1,430,000 - Median unit price: $749,666 - 1‑year price growth: 15.9 % (strong short‑term upside) - 5‑year CAGR: 1.1 % per year (long‑term growth has flattened) - 3‑year growth forecast: 13.5 % (expected continuation of the recent surge)

*Days on market* is not supplied, so we cannot comment on market speed. The mix of a high 1‑year gain and a low long‑term CAGR suggests buyers are paying a premium for recent momentum, while sellers can command strong prices but should be aware that the underlying growth trend is modest.

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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $1,000 - Gross rental yield: 3.6 %

*Vacancy rate* and *demand rating* are not provided. With a 3.6 % yield, investors can expect a modest return that covers most holding costs but does not generate high cash‑flow. The rent level is solid for a suburb with a $1.43 m median house price, reinforcing the hold stance.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity No data on nightly STR rates, occupancy, or estimated annual STR revenue are available. Without those figures we cannot quantify the STR upside, so the default recommendation remains long‑term rental (LTR) until more STR data emerge.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers The data set does not list any specific projects, transport upgrades, or major employers. The 13.5 % 3‑year growth forecast implies that broader regional factors (e.g., Perth’s coastal lifestyle demand) are supporting price appreciation, but we cannot pinpoint a concrete driver.

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## 6. Bull Case If the 13.5 % 3‑year forecast materialises:

• House price scenario: $1,430,000 × 1.135 ≈ $1,622,000 (≈ $192,000 upside)
• Unit price scenario: $749,666 × 1.135 ≈ $850,000 (≈ $100,000 upside)

Assuming rent stays at $1,000 wk, the gross yield would improve to roughly 3.8 % for houses and 4.0 % for units, enhancing cash‑flow and total return.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Quantified Concern | |------|--------------------| | Vacancy risk | No vacancy data; a rise above the typical 2–3 % for similar coastal suburbs could erode the 3.6 % yield. | | Supply pipeline | Without supply figures we cannot gauge new stock, but any surge in approvals could pressure prices and yields. | | Rate sensitivity | A 1 % increase in mortgage rates would raise annual interest costs by roughly $14,300 on a $1.43 m loan (30‑yr, 80 % LVR), cutting net cash‑flow. | | Economic concentration | No employer data; reliance on a single large employer would amplify local downturn risk. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry range: Target houses near the median $1,430,000 or units around $749,666. - Minimum yield target: ≥ 3.6 % gross (to match the current market baseline). - Watch signals: 1. Confirmation of the 3‑year forecast (e.g., quarterly price reports). 2. Emerging vacancy data for the suburb. 3. New development approvals that could increase supply. - Recommended strategy: Acquire at or below the median price, lock in a mortgage with a fixed rate to mitigate interest‑rate risk, and hold for 3–5 years to capture the projected 13.5 % price uplift while collecting steady rental income. Adjust the portfolio if vacancy rises above 3 % or if supply accelerates.