Tiwi Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Tiwi NT Investment Analysis
BUY
— vacancy at 0.3% and $670/wk rent puts this in the top tier of NT yield suburbs.
THE MARKET
Tiwi has compounded at 5.7%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $454,754 in 2021 is worth $600,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 36 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $791,637 by 2031.
- **Median house:** $600,000 | **Units:** $313,255 - **Gross yield:** 5.8% | **Net yield:** 4.3% - **5yr price CAGR:** 5.7%/yr | **3yr forecast:** 6.4%/yr - **Population:** 9,148 | **Owner-occupier rate:** 24% | **Affluence:** High
- **Supply pipeline:** Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- **Vacancy:** 0.3% (improving) | **Rental demand:** Very High - **Median weekly rent:** $670/wk | **Days on market:** 36 (stable) - Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- **Median nightly rate:** $160/night | **Occupancy:** 62% - **Estimated annual STR gross:** ~$36,208/yr - **vs long-term rent:** $34,840/yr (comparable — LTR offers simpler management)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record. - **Transport:** Well-connected inner-city location
BULL CASE
If Tiwi maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 0.8%, median prices could reach $690,000 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Tiwi pull back 10-15% from $600,000, with vacancy rising to 0.5% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- **Anula** (NT): $620,000 median, 5.7% yield, 21.6% 1yr growth - **Berrimah** (NT): $473,682 median, 9.1% yield, 14.7% 1yr growth - **Brinkin** (NT): $638,691 median, 4.7% yield, 8.2% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Tiwi presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and very high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 5.8% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current growth phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $540,000 – $660,000 - Minimum gross yield to target: 6.1% - Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.